Nine days to go. Are you ready?
Cheerleading—Obama/Biden have run the best presidential campaign in history, and they are nine days from making history. www.fivethirtyeight.com calculates a 97% likelihood of victory on the 4th, and a Electoral Vote (EV) margin of over 150. I am convinced that what we need is not only an EV victory, but a large EV victory, so that in addition to inheriting an incredible mess from Bush, Obama will have the mandate to make the broad changes to get the country on the right path.
Villanova political science professor and friend Matt Kerbel shared with me the following last Tuesday: “I'm pleased to be able to say that nothing has changed structurally from when we spoke a few weeks ago. This is still an election about the economy, and Obama is poised to win. He was able to use the debates to close the deal with a number of previously undecided voters, and he comes out of that penultimate period having passed the threshold test of acceptability for an electorate looking to make a change. With the markets starting to settle, he is off his peak numbers slightly, but he holds a commanding position in the electoral college and he will be able to press that advantage by virtue of his unprecedented fundraising. McCain can no longer win without an external event changing the trajectory of the race. With two weeks to go, he needs to maintain morale among his supporters and position himself to take advantage if something unexpected happens. But he cannot win it if things remain as they are.”
Has anyone reading this volunteered more for another election year? There is a reason for this wave of Democratic success—the harnessing of the grass roots energy built up over the past four years.
Speaking of four years—I’d like to reflect on the past four years. I was moved to begin this email list/blog four years ago when the country re-elected Bush. I consider this four years of penance for not having worked harder in 2004. What are you prepared to do in the first four days of November so that you will not have any regrets for the next four years?
Working for Obama—I have attached a form with a list of how you can help in those four days. If you haven’t done so already, please print, complete, and turn into the Wilmington or Newark office, or FAX to me (302-397-2675) and I’ll submit it for you. Please complete it and submit it by Wednesday.
Results Watch – I plan to be in Wilmington on Tuesday night—I don’t yet know where. Timothy’s in Newark is hosting a results party on the 4th, on the second floor. If you want to see the results with fellow Dems, but want to remain in Newark, head to Timothy’s.
Delaware State Wide—This morning’s www.delawareliberal.net shares their state-wide endorsements, and I share them: Biden for Senate, Hartley-Nagle for US Congress, Markell/Denn for Governor/Lt. Governor, and no endorsement for Insurance Commissioner (IC). No endorsement (by DL or by me) is notable, as both DL and I are fundamentally progressive, Democratic folks. The challenge is that the Republican candidate, John Brady, is a very reasonable candidate with reasonable positions, and the Democratic candidate, Karen Weldin Stewart, while holding very good positions, has weaknesses. While I will likely vote all D’s on these five races (actually in all races), I certainly understand fellow progressive Democratic voters who choose to vote for Brady for IC.
Biden, Castle, Markell all seem like shoe-ins. I suspect that Denn will win, but I marched with him yesterday in the Newark parade to help him seal the deal. The IC race seems to be too close to call.
Unless you live downstate in the 41st RD (where Republican turned Democrat John Adkins is running), I feel that Delawareans voting straight D is a very good strategy. There are some fine Republican legislators running, but there are also some Republican candidates running reprehensible campaigns (Lee, Copeland, Ramone, Clatworthy, Gates, etc), and some with terrible policies. We just received a mailing from Planned Parenthood, with many candidates’ views listed. You can go to http://www.pro-choicedelaware.org/voter_guide_selection.php, enter your address, and see the responses (if they participated) of every candidate you will be considering.
To take the majority in the state house, candidates Becky Walker (www.voterebeccawalker.com), Mike Barbieri (www.mikebarbieri.net), Rebecca Young (www.young4the22nd.org), and John Kowalko (www.johnkowalko.com) especially impress me.
There are some great folks running for Senate seats (where progressive Democrats are necessary to reverse the tradition of desk drawer vetoes), most notably Mike Katz (http://www.katz4senate.com), John Mackenzie (http://www.mackenzie4senate.com), and Bethany Hall Long (http://www.bethanyhall-long.us/). This weekend I submitted a letter to the editor supporting all three candidates, as the prescription necessary to fix our state Senate.
Get out there and make the change happen!