041103 Posting--The Morning After

Probably like many of you, I am in a fog, trance, a mild form of shock. Part of it is the inevitable drop in energy now that things are largely out of our hands, part of it from the roller coaster yesterday from the strong exit poll figures to the weak actual numbers (primarily from Florida). Certainly the result is not certain, however I must admit that things aren’t looking very good for our guy.

Matt Kerbel (Political Science professor from Villanova) noted late last night that ‘We got the large turnout, but not in the way I expected. Young people turned out, but so did everyone else, so they did not compose a greater percentage of the electorate as we had hoped.

Interestingly, the exit polls looked great for Kerry and they were in a dire mood at the White House. Then as the returns came in they found that in some states the exit polls were undercounting Republicans for some reason. Kerry was up by 4 in the exit polls, but that's clearly not where the state is headed.

He needs a Red Sox finish now. I wish I had better news.’

I came upon two quotes this morning in Bull! A book about the boom in the stock market from 1982-1999 by Maggie Mahar. Nicholas Taleb, an options trader, said on page 283 “All we can learn from history is that the unpredictable will happen—and does—time and again. The most dangerous error that an investor can make is to mistake probability for certainty.” On the following page, she quotes Peter Bernstein who quotes essayis G.K. Chesterton: “The real trouble with this world of ours … is that it is nearly reasonable, but not quite. Life is not an illogicality; yet it is a trap for logicians. It looks just a little more mathematical and regular than it is; its exactitude is obvious, but its inexactitude is hidden; its wildness lies in wait.” I know that I sought to convince myself that Matt’s and electoral-vote’s best guesses would come to pass, and sought to build up the mathematical and theoretical support for the predictions as much as possible, to remove uncertainty—uncertainty that can not be eliminated.

Let’s see how we did. With our help we helped John Kerry get 48% of the vote in Nevada, up from Gore’s 46%. Importantly, this forced the Republicans to devote precious resources to Nevada that otherwise would have strengthened W elsewhere. We also helped Kerry take Pennsylvania, a state that waffled back and forth all season. Great job!

I’d like to spend a little time thanking folks. First, thanks to all who volunteered to help John Kerry in Nevada and Pennsylvania. We made a real difference, with hundreds and hundreds of cards to Nevada, knocked on over a thousand doors in Pennsylvania and called hundreds if not over a thousand homes in PA. The ‘Delaware Brigade’ was wonderful and did great work.

Thanks also to the folks who helped us work in battleground states—Heath who led the Nevada letter writing, the folks in Chester County, especially Mark, John, Dick and the other Kennett Area Democrats, Marianne and the Oxford area folks, and Debra and the Chester County HQ, and our friends in Delaware County (Tom at the Chichester phone bank and Michelle with the Media-area Election-Day activities). Without them, we would have had a very hard time to know where to direct our energies, and make a difference.

While we are disappointed with our national results, we shouldn’t discount the tremendous results from Delaware. In addition to voting our 3 EVs for John Kerry, we elected Democrats in something like 16 of 18 key races, including Governor, Lt. Gov, Insurance Commissioner, New Castle County Executive, and New Castle County Council President. Even more stunning was the fact that Delaware punished those (Republicans) who resorted to character assassination and other forms of negative ads. Now if only the country could take Delaware’s lead … On the topic of Delaware, I would like to thank Joe Rupert (or blame him), as it was during my first Kerry Meet Up that his energy infected me to pitch in. Joe has done a wonderful job this year of boosting grass-roots volunteering to Delaware.

While I am disappointed that his crystal ball was not crystal-clear, I greatly appreciated the assistance provided by Professor Matt Kerbel of Villanova. He greatly raised my understanding of the political processes and the interaction with the media. I especially appreciated his willingness to spend an evening with us in Newark, providing a cram course in the Media and Politics, with a lively extended Q&A session. I envy his students at Villanova.

Matt turned me onto http://www.electoral-vote.com, which we learned this week is the labor of love of Andrew Tanenbaum, a US citizen (and computer science professor) living in Amsterdam. He wrote the textbook on computer networks that I studied in the early 80s (prior life). Again, I would have preferred that his crystal ball had been clearer …

Thanks to all who periodically gave me a pat on the back; I found this extremely helpful. I hope that we achieved my goal of providing those of us frustrated with the current course of action with the opportunity to constructively participate in our country’s future, rather than be powerless from the curse of the Republican spin-witch-doctors.

Finally, thanks to my family, Pam and Mike, who have put up with my trips to PA, phone calls while watching movies at home, crowds of folks at our house for debate parties, and simply my preoccupation (obsession?) for the past three months.

041115 Posting--Recount, Anyone?

I apologize for sending so much ‘after the fact’. However I asked Matt Kerbel (Villanova PolySci professor) about the issue of recounts, and I strongly suspect that you will find his comments very interesting. I am also attaching a PDF of the study he alludes to that was done by the UPenn professor on the discrepancies between the exit polls and ‘official’ tallies.

As with most of you, I have no interest in getting my hopes up again just to be dashed. However, I think that this is too important to disregard.

Paul Baumbach

Matt,

I try to avoid the temptation to adopt Oliver Stone's paranoia, however .

How serious is the recount hubbub in the blogosphere? I hear that Nader is challenging NH, and the Green/Libertarians are about to challenge the Ohio results? Given that Ohio had (reportedly) 70% of votes cast with paper ballots, what did Florida 2000 and the US Supreme Court decision mean for paper ballot recounting in Ohio in 2004? Is this all 'not a chance in ****' dreaming? I feel like I need to pinch myself.

Have you reviewed the pro & con academic views of the exit poll discrepancy and have a (as much as possible) non-partisan, academic/scientific take?

If you have time, I'd love to hear your thoughts on this.

Paul

Hi, Paul. She has not sung -- yet. And it's because -- of all people -- Ralph Nader is going to get a recount in New Hampshire.

Without getting all Oliver Stone about this, there is a lot of circumstantial evidence that points to as yet unexplained tabulation irregularities -- a neutral, empirical concept. I am not talking about fraud, although it may be fraud. I am taking about data that do not fit with other data.

As you know, Paul, around 6 p.m. on Election Day we were looking at a comfortable Kerry victory in line with what the Incumbent Rule would predict. Bush's margin in the national exit poll was 48% -- exactly where you would expect it to be based on his final average in the last set of polls (where he was at 48.5%). Then without warning the big states (Pennsylvania, Ohio, Flordia) began to skew heavily toward Bush as the actual results came in. Is this possible? Yes -- the exit polls could have undersampled Bush's support. But it is highly unlikely. A piece published last week by a Penn statistician put the conditional probability that these three polls would be off by as much as they were at 250 million to one. You don't have to be a statistician to wonder whether it was the actual vote count that was off, not the exits.

In North Carolina, where roughly one-third of the electorate voted in advance, there is evidence (and, I have to caution, without having seen the actual raw data I can't comment on its accuracy) that for every race except for the presidential and senate contests the early vote margins were within one percentage point of the election day margins. Yet, Bush picked up seven points in the election day vote over the early vote. If this can be verified, it suggests that something was different about the election day vote for president in that state that did not apply to other contests -- something that led to a spike in Bush's tally.

There are data in Florida and Ohio suggesting that several heavily Democratic counties surprisingly gave Bush an unexpectedly high proportion of their vote. The Florida counties have been explained as being "Dixiecrat" counties, and some of them were. But, the interesting thing about these counties is they share a voting method -- optical scanning. And it is in the optical scanning tabulation that I think we may have the common link among these and other irregularities. But to comment on this I have to move from reporting data to analyzing it, which means I am about to speculate.

It is possible that the computers that compiled and tabulated votes from these machines -- the central computers -- overcounted Bush votes, perhaps by a large margin and perhaps on a national scale. Perhaps. My understanding is that the tabulations are compiled on

PC's running Microsoft Access spreadsheets. I further understand that the spreadsheets were not password protected, that the computers were connected to the web, and that the data were not encripted. In other words, they were there for the taking should someone want to hack them. Be aware that I am drawing a conclusion that fits the data. I could be wrong. But it is within reason that I am right.

This is where Ralph Nader comes in. He has requested and will get a recount of the optical scan votes in New Hampshire. Nader has asserted that he believes these machines boosted Bush's tally by upwards of 45,000 additional votes -- a significant number in a small state. Because there is a paper record of the vote -- those optical scan strips will be hand counted -- it will be possible to determine if he is right. If there is any hope to challenge the vote, it will most likely come from here. Should Nader be proved correct it will call into question all the optical scan ballots, and you will see requests for hand recounts nationwide. It won't matter WHY the count was off at this point. It will simply matter that it was.

Should this not come to pass, either because Nader's recount is ultimately blocked or because it fails to demonstrate a measurable problem, there is still the possibility that the election can turn on an Ohio recount being called by the Green and Libertarian candidates (which will go ahead if they raise enough money to pay for it), or by Kerry closing the gap in Ohio on the strength of provisional and absentee ballots. There are other challenges in the works as well -- see: http://www.blackboxvoting.org/. I suspect all these challenges are a much longer shot, though.

Also, keep in mind that while many of us cling to the remote hope that Kerry could still become president, equally important issues of transparent elections and the winner's mandate are also in play. One reason why so much blog energy is being expended on this issue is that it is easy for Kerry partisans to believe that Bush stole the election. All the dirty tricks and partisan dealings leading up to election day in states like Ohio and Florida, against the backdrop of what happened in 2000, against the backdrop of a Republican Congress' unwillingness to mandate a paper trail for electronic machines -- all this leads people to believe that it could have been stolen. Whether or not it was, the issue of holding transparent elections in the future is a critical one, and that cause can only be advanced by delving deeply into what happened two weeks ago, regardless of who wins. And in the likely event that all this is insufficient to overturn Bush's victory, it will and should cast a shadow over his second term -- if it becomes a mainstream story.

The New Hampshire recount, if and when it goes forward, should push this story into the mainstream. For whatever it's worth, a reporter friend told me Friday that he has two friends who are political writers for Newsweek, and they think that something funny is going on. An event like a Nader recount of New Hampshire would give them the hook they need to start writing about it.

So, I'd say don't expect Kerry to become president, but know that it is still a longshot possibility. Feel free to share this with the others who came to the talk at the church. I'm sure they're concerned as well.

Best,

Matt

041122 Posting

I’ll begin with a John Kerry update and end with a Progressives update.

Recount status—I use two sites to obtain the latest on this saga--http://www.verifiedvoting.org is a non-partisan non-profit (consider donating) site that is dedicated to having the US really be an example to the world with dependable election results. As such, they are monitoring the status of the verification process and the academic studies of the 2004 election. There are recounts requested by 2004 presidential candidates in New Hampshire and in Ohio, and studies that examine Florida along with other states. This is a very good site for ‘what’s up’.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6210240/ is the site of CNBC reporter Keith Oibermann, who is the first national media reporter to cover this issue. He generally provides a daily update of very readable and comprehensive material. Yesterday’s posting points out that the real deadline for electoral votes is in January, not December—go to the site to find out why/how.

I retain my view that overturning the Bush victory is a pretty low-odds proposition. Someone pointed out to me, however, that even should Bush be inaugurated in January, if the recounts indicate that again Bush took the White House solely due to legal technicalities/deadlines, he will have a weaker ‘mandate’ with which to push his agenda.

Progressives Update—There are three local organizations designed to further the progressive agenda in the Delaware region. Two of them use Yahoo Groups, which are an alternative to email lists, and are far easier to administer. You can go to http://groups.yahoo.com to find out more. You will need to have (or obtain a free) Yahoo signon to access these groups. I choose the Daily Digest form of getting updates, to limit the number of emails I receive. Yahoo Groups offer very useful functions such as uploaded files, and calendars.

Progressive Democrats for Delaware, at http://www.progressivedemsdel.com is a well organized group with a very clear charter. Check out their list of What Do We Believe? at http://www.progressivedemsdel.com/believe/ . I think that you will find kindred spirits there. If possible, join their Yahoo Group ‘ProgressiveDemsDel’. They do not appear at this time to be updating their Yahoo Group. Their next meeting is Wednesday December 1^st at 7pm at the HQ of the Delaware Democratic Party, behind the News Journal building off Basin Road. For more information, contact Rebecca Young at createrhy@aol.com .

A consortium of groups, including the Progressive Democrats of America (PDA), Democracy for America, Grassroots for America, an interfaith organization, and another group representing a variety of progressive organizations have formed a nationwide alliance calling for UNITY; I have also heard this group called Moving Forward. Their next meeting will be on December 11^th at 11am at 234 Cheltenham Road, Newark, Delaware. If you plan to attend, please email Phil Pollner at leadcoal@aol.com . This group has a more national, less local charter.

The 48% Club is looking for a permanent name, and for kindred spirits. They are a group of folks who “did NOT give a ‘mandate’ to Bush in 2004”. For a few months they had been meeting regularly at First Unitarian on Concord Pike. They, too, have a Yahoo Group at 48_Percent_Club. You can also contact Mickey Kelley for more information at mkelley@versalign.com . Minutes from last Thursday’s meeting (attended by Delaware Treasurer Jack Markell and over forty other folks) are on the Yahoo Group, under Files, and also are attached as a PDF file to this email. Their next meeting is Thursday 12/16/04 at First Unitarian at 7pm (go to http://www.firstu.org/ for directions).

As pointed out on the X-Files --- YOU ARE NOT ALONE!

041125 Posting

I’ll begin with a John Kerry update and end with a Progressives update.

Recount status—I continue to recommend the following two sites to monitor the status of the 11/2/2004 presidential election recounts-- http://www.verifiedvoting.org and

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6210240/ .

Kennett Celebration—If you helped campaign with the Kennett Square folks, they you are invited to join the annual holiday celebration [*T*H*I*S*] Thursday December 2^nd at 7pm at the Kendal Farmhouse. They will celebrate our accomplishments, and also preview the 2005 plans. Please RSVP by [*T*H*I*S*] Monday the 29^th by emailing Mark Girardot at Ixtla_i@hotmail.com .

Framing—A common theme of Monday morning quarterbacks is that the Kerry campaign and DNC failed to effectively ‘frame’ our candidate. There is some VERY interesting articles at http://www.rockridgeinstitute.org/projects/strategic/ . The Framing The Dems article is particularly insightful (disturbing).

Progressives Update—There are three local organizations designed to further the progressive agenda in the Delaware region. Two of them use Yahoo Groups, which are an alternative to email lists, and are far easier to administer. You can go to http://groups.yahoo.com to find out more. You will need to have (or obtain a free) Yahoo signon to access these groups. I choose the Daily Digest form of getting updates, to limit the number of emails I receive. Yahoo Groups offer very useful functions such as uploaded files, and calendars.

Progressive Democrats for Delaware, at http://www.progressivedemsdel.com is a well organized group with a very clear charter. Check out their list of What Do We Believe? at http://www.progressivedemsdel.com/believe/ . I think that you will find kindred spirits there. If possible, join their Yahoo Group ‘ProgressiveDemsDel’. They do not appear at this time to be updating their Yahoo Group. Their next meeting is [*T*H*I*S*] Wednesday December 1^st at 7pm at the HQ of the Delaware Democratic Party, behind the News Journal building off Basin Road. For more information, contact Rebecca Young at createrhy@aol.com .

[I am correcting my description of this group, using more information shared by Phil Pollner.] A new, nationwide organization has been launched as a result of the last election, comprised of the organizers of the Dean and Kucinich camps and other progressive organizers. They have called on grassroots progressives in some 38 states to begin to cooperate by working together to represent all of the issues and values and resolve the injustices that confront us as a nation. Organizing by states, we can build a grassroots movement able to unite progressives both inside and outside the Democratic Party. Their next meeting will be on December 11^th at 11am at 234 Cheltenham Road, Newark, Delaware. If you plan to attend, please email Phil Pollner at leadcoal@aol.com.

The 48% Club is looking for a permanent name, and for kindred spirits. They are a group of folks who “did NOT give a ‘mandate’ to Bush in 2004”. For a few months they had been meeting regularly at First Unitarian on Concord Pike. They, too, have a Yahoo Group, at 48_Percent_Club. You can also contact Mickey Kelley for more information at mkelley@versalign.com . Minutes from last Thursday’s meeting (attended by Delaware Treasurer Jack Markell and over forty other folks) are on the Yahoo Group, under Files. Their next meeting is Thursday 12/16/04 at First Unitarian at 7pm (go to http://www.firstu.org/ for directions).

As pointed out on the X-Files --- YOU ARE NOT ALONE!

041221 Posting

I’ll begin with a short John Kerry update and end with a Progressives update. My personal recommendation is to read about the 1/5/05 meeting by the Progressive Dem’s of DE if you want to work on gaining ground in 06 and 08, and/or look for inaugural protests under 48% club and the September 11^th coalition.

Recount status—I continue to recommend the following two sites to monitor the status of the 11/2/2004 presidential election recounts-- http://www.verifiedvoting.org and

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6210240/. Sadly, I am not expecting anything to come of this before 1/20/2005, D Day (Dubya Day).

Framing—A common theme of Monday morning quarterbacks is that the Kerry campaign and DNC failed to effectively ‘frame’ our candidate. There are some VERY interesting articles at http://www.rockridgeinstitute.org/projects/strategic/ . The Framing The Dems article is particularly insightful (disturbing). Of the groups listed below, the Progressive Democrats of DE are the only one with a team specifically looking at learning about this. Many folks are talking about the Don’t Think of an Elephant book, which I found to be a wonderful introduction to ‘the framing thing’.

Progressives Update—There are three local organizations designed to further the progressive agenda in the Delaware region. Two of them use Yahoo Groups, which are an alternative to email lists, and are far easier to administer than email lists. You can go to http://groups.yahoo.com to find out more. You will need to have (or obtain a free) Yahoo signon to access these groups. In the past I chose the Daily Digest form of getting updates, to limit the number of emails I receive, I have recently changed it to only Special Notices. You can even request no emails, so you simply go to the group site to view messages without being barraged. Yahoo Groups offer very useful functions such as uploaded files, and calendars. Note that if you subscribe to multiple ones, you run the risk of seeing the same thing on several fronts. I recommend that you decide which group suits you best and jump in with both feet to that organization. There are too many wonderful groups doing wonderful things for me to adequately summarize them. Again, find your best fit and join, and cut me (the middleman) out!

Progressive Democrats for Delaware, at http://www.progressivedemsdel.com is a well organized group with a very clear charter. Check out their list of What Do We Believe? at http://www.progressivedemsdel.com/believe/ . I think that you will find kindred spirits there. If possible, join their Yahoo Group ‘ProgressiveDemsDel’. Their next meeting is Wednesday January 5^th at the HQ of the Delaware Democratic Party, behind the News Journal building off Basin Road. The meeting should be dynamite. It will be a workshop on ‘how to talk to/with conservatives and the press’. Activism and action will be the theme. It should be so good that they are recommending that you bring a folding chair! For more information, contact Rebecca Young at createrhy@aol.com .

The 48% Club is a group of folks who “did NOT give a ‘mandate’ to Bush in 2004”. They are continuing to meet regularly at First Unitarian on Concord Pike. They, too, have a Yahoo Group, at 48_Percent_Club. You can also contact Mickey Kelley for more information at mkelley@versalign.com . Their next meeting is Thursday 1/13/05 at First Unitarian at 7pm (go to http://www.firstu.org/ for directions). One of their primary items for that meeting is planning an inaugural protest on 1/20/2005.

A new, nationwide organization has been launched as a result of the last election, designed to provide the infrastructure for building a grassroots multiple issue campaign/movement, working on critical local and national issues, as well as collaborating with similar groups nationwide. Note that this group is not affiliated with the Democratic Party, in order to broaden the support for their shared ideologies and common issues related to social and economic justice. Their next meeting will be on January 15^th at 11am at 234 Cheltenham Road, Newark, Delaware. If you plan to attend, please email Phil Pollner at leadcoal@aol.com.

Do Not DeLay— The Ethics Committee admonished House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-TX) twice over the past week for improper conduct on three separate matters. He also has a third black mark on his record from 1999, when the panel admonished him for yet another matter. I believe the time has come for Rep. DeLay to step down. He is ethically unfit to serve as a leader of the people's House. America has higher standards than to let someone with his track record lead an institution as important to our democracy as the United States House of Representatives. Ask Tom Delay to Step Down now! Go to: http://www.commoncause.org/stepdownDeLay

September 11th Coalition for Just and Peaceful Intiatives—project of Pacem in Terris—There are two options shared by the coalition for Inauguration Day Protests. For more information, contact June Eisley at juneeisley@earthlink.net

Buy Blue—Go to www.buyblue.org to find out which organizations support more Democratic candidates than Republican. If you haven’t finished your holiday shopping yet …

The Green Party—There are many very active Green Party folks in the area quite dedicated to progressive issues. As such, many of them are well represented in the groups listed above. Go to www.greendel.org for more information. Their top current issue is the proposed LNG (liquefied natural gas) terminal across the Delaware River from New Castle. Another top issue is the city of Wilmington’s dumping of sewage into our streams, behavior that the current (state and federal) administrations appear to condone.

The 48% Club’s Tom Vincent includes the following note at the bottom of his email postings: 1946, while awaiting trial at Nuremberg, Nazi Reichs Marshall Herman Goering told an interviewer: "Of course the people don't want war...but...the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to greater danger. It works the same way in any country."

050105 Progressive Posting

Just a (relatively) quick note. Please review my prior posting (12/21/04) for more details.

TONIGHT—7pm at Delaware Democratic Party HQ (near the News Journal building) is a workshop on framing, likely the reason that Bush was able to get 51% of the vote. This should be a wonderful meeting. Bring a chair if you can, and pencil & paper, and prepare to be WOWed. Presented by Progressive Democrats of Delaware.

Next Thursday—7:30pm at First Unitarian Church on Halstead Road in Wilm is the normal 48% Club monthly meeting where I believe they’ll be planning the Inauguration Day protest.

MultiParty Progressives—Phil Pollner’s group’s next meeting on next Saturday at 11am at 234 Cheltenham Road in Newark (call 266-7373 or email leadcoal@aol.com for directions).

Green Correction—I briefly mentioned Green Delaware (www.greendel.org) in my last posting, but failed to mention Delaware’s Green Party, whose website is www.gpde.org . Please go to these sites to learn more of their activities and opportunities.

Yahoo Groups—While remaining a member of both, I have shut down any emails from the two Yahoo Groups (PDDs and 48% Club) to improve my sanity. I can still go there when I want to catch up on things, and to check their calendar for upcoming events. Yahoo Groups does a wonderful job of helping groups manage membership lists for email postings. I simply found that the very high energy level of the members led to too high a number of postings (even in the Daily Digest format) for my life at this time.

Have a great month!

Paul Baumbach

050107 Progressive Posting

An update to my recent email:

Schedule Clarification—the next meeting of Phil Pollner’s MultiParty Progressive group is Saturday the 15^th at 11am (not tomorrow).

The Framing session on the 5^th by the PDD (Progressive Democrats of Delaware) was wonderful. It began with the viewing of a DVD by George Lakoff, author of Don’t Think of an Elephant. Afterwards I joined a breakout group that included Green Delaware’s Alan Muller and State Representative candidate John Kowalko. We came up with the tag line for progressive health care of “Healing America—Securing Quality Healthcare through Restoring Integrity, Honesty, and Access”. Despite our best non-verifiable voting irregularities, ours was not selected as the best ;-( I am attaching a PDF file with the 3 page handout from the training session. I have a few notes:

When taxes are portrayed as bad (requiring relief) turn the discussion to point out that taxes are investments, ones that have yielded dividends including highways, national institute of health, the federal reserve board, public schools, the internet. When conservatives claim to own values, stress that liberals believe in values such as empathy, responsibility, strength, fairness, opportunity, open communication, cooperation, freedom, trust, and caring. When conservatives portray them as the protectors of America, point out that Liberals believe in protection, of the environment, of worker safety, retiree security, health care for Americans. Use ‘ending pregnancy’ rather than abortion, permitting women to control their own lives. When gay marriage is raised, point that marriage isn’t what is sacred in the US, love and commitment is. Marriage isn’t defined as being between a man and a woman, but rather marriage is a lifelong commitment of love between two people, and liberals are dedicated to preserving this deep family value. Lakoff notes that conservatives use (resort to) Orwellian language (clean skies act, Patriot Act, …) it indicates that they are weak, and that a good tactic is to attack by renaming (dirty skies act or smokestack protection act, Big Brother Act, Trust No One Act, Spread Fear Act, …). Lakoff notes that there are more liberal Christians than conservative Christians, but that conservative Christians are far more politically active, and that liberals must strengthen religion/politics ties. Finally, as conservatives are attracted to the ‘strict father’ model of government (and given the wealth of ammunition), liberals can succeed at pointing out where Bush has been weak (weak on our soldiers (think humvee armor, boots on the ground), weak on the economy (I love the phrase ‘birth tax’), weak on international relations, etc).

Given my (day job) interest in the economy, I am very attracted to the ‘birth tax’ concept, as a potentially powerful wedge to bring swing voters and moderates to liberal candidates. I think that all Americans can appreciate how Georgie has created a substantial tax for every American with his budget deficits, and that this birth tax is awful for our country and children. The country needs Birth Tax Elimination, and Birth Tax Elimination clearly isn’t possible with a Republican majority in Congress, or a Republican in the White House. That’s my rally cry!

I have also included a two page writeup of some critical proposed legislation related to Redistricting in Delaware, shared by a representative of Common Cause Delaware. The current redistricting process relies on close-door horse trading. The proposal is for an amendment to Delaware’s constitution to create a non-partisan commission, public hearings, and the elimination of special powers to incumbent legislators. Fresh Air Redistricting is done in 19 states in the US. We can’t be the first, but we can be the next!

Mark your calendar for Wednesday February 2^nd at 7pm at Democratic Party HQ near the News Journal building. This monthly meeting of PDD will feature Jeffrey Feldman, author of The Feldman Diaries and Frameshop.

050125 Progressive Posting

Top Delaware Issues—Many progressives are disappointed with several of Governor Minner’s recent cabinet appointments. There is strong opposition to the proposed LNG (liquefied natural gas) terminal across the river from New Castle. There is a desire to provide full-day kindergarten, and for ‘Clean Air Redistricting’ (having political redistricting done in the open, not behind closed doors). And let’s not forget House Bill 99, without it our state does not prohibit discrimination based on sexual orientation.

National initiatives (thanks to PDD’s ‘DC Oversight Team’) include Tort Reform (Immunity for Corporations), Privatization of Social Security (Anti-Social Insecurity), Tax Reform (Fat Cat Welfare), Judicial Nominations (Removing Women’s Reproductive Choice), Cabinet Appointments (If you support torture, you, too, can be Attorney General), ….

48% Club—Next meeting is 1/10/05 from 7:30-9pm at First Unitarian in Wilmington. Go to http://groups.yahoo.com/groups/48_Percent_Club or subscribe to their group at 48_Percent_Club-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Progressive Democrats of Delaware (PDD)—The next meeting is Wed Feb 2 at 7pm at DE Dems HQ—the topic is framing the progressive message, with Jeffrey Feldman, author of The Feldman Diaries and Frameshop. Contact is CreateRHY@aol.com

Delaware Alliance to Restore Democracy (DARD)—This is the group led by Dr. Phillip Pollner that generally meets the 3^rd Saturday at 11am in Newark (next one 2/19/05, contact leadcoal@aol.com). I have attached minutes from their 1/15 meeting. Their proposed mission statement follows: The Delaware Alliance to Restore Democracy is a federation of diverse organizations and individuals who reject the deceptive and dangerous legislation and political policies that violate long-standing American values and the principles of American democracy. Our mission is to inform the public and our elected representatives of the human and economic consequences of plans or decisions that adversely affect the lives of citizens in Delaware and the nation -and by our resolve, organize and mobilize people to take action in support of progressive policies and programs essential for the realization of a fair and equitable society, not just for some, but for all.

Pacem in Terris—Is holding a non-violent direct action workshop on Sunday the 30th from 1-4pm at Wilmington Friends Meeting House (4th and West). Contact is juneeisley@earthlink.net .

Unitarian Universalist Fellowship of Newark (UUFN)—Is hosting two sessions on George Lakoff’s book Don’t Think of an Elephant, on the next two Fridays (1/28 and 2/4) from 7-9pm. Go to www.uufn.org for directions. The UUFN is also sponsoring a series of lectures on World Religions by UD Professor Alan Fox, on Mondays at 7pm beginning 2/7/05 (Islam is on 4/25).

www.crisispapers.org collects ‘the best’ progressive writings from the internet.

Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC)—This tax credit is available to poor families with low income, families that often need help to prepare the tax returns. While they can go to tax prep firms, these often overcharge. The Delaware EITC Campaign offers free tax preparation for Delaware’s working poor families. For more information (flyers to distribute, ways to volunteer, …) call Fran Brumskill at 655-0803.

050209 Progressive Posting

I’ve found my holy grail. Ever since 11/2/2004, I’ve been on a quest to understand why we were unsuccessful in convincing the country that Georgie was a blight on the country, and that Progressives offer a vastly superior solution. The quest is not only to understand what went wrong, but what we need to do to go forward, and in a way that I personally can impact.

I have kept up with several progressive groups, online and in person, including MoveOn, the DNC & Kerry mailings, blackboxvoting.org, the 48% Group, the PDD (Progressive Democrats of Delaware), DARD (Delaware Alliance to Restore Democracy), the Delaware Democratic Party, the Green Party of Delaware, Green Delaware, Pacem in Terris, ……. I have summarized many of these and have provided pointers to their sites and/or contact folks.

Home at last … The Progressive Democrats of Delaware have held two workshops on framing, an area of political study popularized by George Lakoff’s Don’t Think of an Elephant book. Last week Jeffrey Feldman came to lead a workshop. OH MY GOD. I am deeply hooked. I participated in a session at our church (www.uufn.org) two days later on framing and found that it is taking hold in me.

Progressives Can Speak Morals. Feldman has a website (WRITE THIS DOWN), www.frameshopisopen.com. Do not lose this site, bookmark it, visit is regularly. Regardless of your political persuasion (yes, even conservatives) can learn an awful lot at this site on how to communicate your ideals to others. I consider Feldman a genius at taking the ‘egghead’ theories of Lakoff at putting this into action. Just recently he reviewed a recent speech by John Edwards on Progressive Ideals. I posted a note that Edwards does such a wonderful job of explaining how Progressives seek to extend a hand to all Americans, we should note that Conservatives instead with to extend a finger to average Americans.

Framing is Key—Without framing (using Lakoff and/or Feldman), you will be unable to sway mainstream voters. I believe this VERY STRONGLY. I will no longer provide ‘clearing house’ information on the other progressive groups in the area (look to my 12/21/2004 and 1/5/2005 updates for emails & links, or contact me if you can’t find them). I urge you to find the one or two that meet your needs and get connected to them, but to get their information directly from them, not from me. Instead, in these emails I will begin to provide lessons and hints for ‘how to talk with conservatives’, ‘how to talk your values’.

The facts alone will not sway undecided and conservative voters, we learned this on 11/2/04. Facts don’t create a bridge to ‘them’, common ideals do. Facts can create moats, while ideals & frames create bridges. Progressives have been chronically incapable of speaking our ideals (although John Edwards did a wonderful job on the 5^th (in a speech I call Progressives offer a Handshake, while Conservatives offer us the Finger).

The FrameShopIsOpen site offers us tools to effectively respond to questions on Social Security, Iraq, Tort Reform, Education, the Environment, Reproductive Choice, … It offers an Elevator Speech. To effectively turn the tide, progressives need to unify our message, and permanently rise above the fact-only level. By communicating our ideals, we get consensus. Only then do we move onto the steps of exploring policies. I recommend that you first read the Lakoff book, which has fundamental background, but is too theoretical to be ‘it’ for me. I find that the FrameShopIsOpen site provides 100% practical guidance. It is my Holy Grail.

I urge you to explore the site, find one or two key issues that tug at you, and see how Feldman suggests you communicate your values about that issue. Practice this to the point where you can effectively have a dialog on the issue with others, and more effectively write letters to the editors and legislators. Check it regularly for updates, for comments from viewers, to get refreshed. I met with several colleagues on Friday night, several of whom are arch-conservatives. I had ‘boned up’ on the FrameShop’s approach to discussing Social Security, and was far more effective in heading off the crap that was flung around.

I list a very recent passage from the site on the issue of freedom of speech for university professors:

Frameshop: Slur Prof

ALERT - The Constitution of the United States is under attack by the Republican Party, most recently using this phrase:

slur prof

ANALYSIS - The goal of these attacks is to silence dissent against the Bush White House. The only impediment to achieving this goal is the First Amendment. The attacks on professors are designed to lure Progressives into the media to "defend" anti-American statements, thereby turning the public against the right to free expression.

STRATEGY - Do not take the bait! Instead, take the lead in these discussions by stealing the ball: "The problem is not college professors with unpopular opinions, but Republican legislators who trample the Constitution. Americans are united against the return of McCarthyism. Freedom to speak out against our government is not just a right, it is the defining feature of America."

050315 Progressive Update

Victory is Ours—It appears that Georgie’s attempt to cripple Social Security has failed. In today’s New York Times, conservative columnist David Brooks writes “At this point there's no better than a one-in-four chance that some form of Social Security reform will be passed this year. There's no sign that Republicans will bend on their insistence on private accounts or Democrats on their opposition. There's no sign that enough Republicans will tolerate tax increases or that enough Democrats will tolerate benefit cuts.” Democrats stood together with the American people, and demanded that Bush abandon his attempts to dismantle this public program with private accounts. Letters to the editors, meetings with politicians, emails, and other efforts were able to derail this train wreck. Good job!

Framing is Key—The victory with Social Security provides proof that progressive values can prevail over conservative values, as long as they are communicated at a high enough level. Standing together, security for seniors, and other value-based goals trumped the heck out of giving a windfall to wall street.

To learn more about framing, first read George Lakoff’s book Don’t Think of an Elephant (check Amazon), and afterwards, read the Feldman diaries from www.frameshopisopen.com . Professor Jeffrey Feldman teaches at NYU, and the Progressive Democrats of Delaware brought him to Wilmington in February for a wonderful workshop. My church, the UUFN (Unitarian Universalist Fellowship of Newark, www.uufn.org), is hosting a workshop on framing this Friday at 7pm.

The FrameShopIsOpen site offers us tools to effectively respond to questions on current issues, such as liberal professors, tort reform, a free Iraq, and most recently, on American fascism. It offers an Elevator Speech. To effectively turn the tide, progressives need to unify our message, and permanently rise above the fact-only level.

My Framing Experiences—I joined other progressives in a meeting with Senator Carper’s staff late last month. I began my comments with ‘I want to be proud to be an American again. Our president has two leadership mantras—Do As I Say, Not As I Do, and Because I Said So.’ This set the stage for my comments, which at the fact level opposed the bozos Bush is presenting again for judicial nominees, and which opposed the ‘nuclear option’ of eliminating the filibuster in the US Senate. While I was preaching to the choir, I felt that it is important to remind progressives to lead with the frame, and stay within it where practical. This requires that we restrain ourselves from our natural tendency to state the obvious (our country’s founders instituted the filibuster to defend the rights of the minority in this country, and these recycled judicial nominees were awful last term, and they aren’t any better now). I was able to stay in the frame with pointing out that eliminating the filibuster is an example of Because I Said So leadership, leadership that does not with to consider any other alternatives. Further, the nuclear option is an example of the Do As I Say, Not As I Do, as the proposed Iraqi constitution includes the filibuster, a feature that is quite valued by the Kurds—the filibuster is good for Iraqis, however not for Americans.

My point is that in political discussions, letters to the editor, etc, identify the highest ideal that supports your issue, and lead with this ideal. Only after you have tried to gain consensus on the ideal should you travel down to how your issue supports the ideal.

Your Framing Experiences—I urge you to explore the Frameshopisopen site, find one or two key issues that tug at you, and see how Feldman suggests you communicate your values about that issue. Practice this to the point where you can effectively have a dialog on the issue with others, and more effectively write letters to the editors and legislators. Check it regularly for updates, for comments from viewers, to get refreshed. I met with several colleagues on Friday night, several of whom are arch-conservatives. I had ‘boned up’ on the FrameShop’s approach to discussing Social Security, and was far more effective in heading off the crap that was flung around.

Arctic Natural Wildlife Refuge is under attack again by Georgie. Contact your US Senators now to ask them to support the Cantwell-Kerry Amendment.

Delaware House Bill 36 (ending Discrimination based on Sexual Orientation) is moving through the House where it is expected to be approved. The Senate is another matter …

Local Politics Update—I am now a member of the local (23^rd Representative District) Democratic District Council. Our district’s state representative is newly elected Democrat Terry Schooley (co-sponsor of HB36), who has been active recently on the Newark Country Club and the Newark Crime Spree issues, along with finding her way amongst Dover lawmakers. The Committee is hosting the 10^th Annual Spaghetti Dinner and Auction from 6-9pm on Friday April 15^th at the UUFN church. New Castle County Executive Chris Coons will be the auctioneer—this is well worth the cost of admission. I have a limited supply (sure) of $10 tickets. Let me know if you’d like to buy a ticket, before we sell out (sure)! The proceeds will enable the committee to help local and less-local Democratic candidates’ campaigns.

You can meet Terry Schooley on Wednesday mornings from 7:30 to 8:30am at the Eagle Diner. She would welcome a visit from you.

Keep it progressive!

Paul Baumbach

050326 Welcome

Welcome! I am trying to use the 'blog' format to pass on the progressive insights I have been picking up, and which I encourage you to pass on. I am starting by posting my emailed updates from Election Day forward. Please pass on your comments. Paul Baumbach