Progressive Update--10/27/2008--Countdown

Nine days to go. Are you ready?
Cheerleading—Obama/Biden have run the best presidential campaign in history, and they are nine days from making history. www.fivethirtyeight.com calculates a 97% likelihood of victory on the 4th, and a Electoral Vote (EV) margin of over 150. I am convinced that what we need is not only an EV victory, but a large EV victory, so that in addition to inheriting an incredible mess from Bush, Obama will have the mandate to make the broad changes to get the country on the right path.
Villanova political science professor and friend Matt Kerbel shared with me the following last Tuesday: “I'm pleased to be able to say that nothing has changed structurally from when we spoke a few weeks ago. This is still an election about the economy, and Obama is poised to win. He was able to use the debates to close the deal with a number of previously undecided voters, and he comes out of that penultimate period having passed the threshold test of acceptability for an electorate looking to make a change. With the markets starting to settle, he is off his peak numbers slightly, but he holds a commanding position in the electoral college and he will be able to press that advantage by virtue of his unprecedented fundraising. McCain can no longer win without an external event changing the trajectory of the race. With two weeks to go, he needs to maintain morale among his supporters and position himself to take advantage if something unexpected happens. But he cannot win it if things remain as they are.”
Has anyone reading this volunteered more for another election year? There is a reason for this wave of Democratic success—the harnessing of the grass roots energy built up over the past four years.
Speaking of four years—I’d like to reflect on the past four years. I was moved to begin this email list/blog four years ago when the country re-elected Bush. I consider this four years of penance for not having worked harder in 2004. What are you prepared to do in the first four days of November so that you will not have any regrets for the next four years?
Working for Obama—I have attached a form with a list of how you can help in those four days. If you haven’t done so already, please print, complete, and turn into the Wilmington or Newark office, or FAX to me (302-397-2675) and I’ll submit it for you. Please complete it and submit it by Wednesday.
Results Watch – I plan to be in Wilmington on Tuesday night—I don’t yet know where. Timothy’s in Newark is hosting a results party on the 4th, on the second floor. If you want to see the results with fellow Dems, but want to remain in Newark, head to Timothy’s.
Delaware State Wide—This morning’s www.delawareliberal.net shares their state-wide endorsements, and I share them: Biden for Senate, Hartley-Nagle for US Congress, Markell/Denn for Governor/Lt. Governor, and no endorsement for Insurance Commissioner (IC). No endorsement (by DL or by me) is notable, as both DL and I are fundamentally progressive, Democratic folks. The challenge is that the Republican candidate, John Brady, is a very reasonable candidate with reasonable positions, and the Democratic candidate, Karen Weldin Stewart, while holding very good positions, has weaknesses. While I will likely vote all D’s on these five races (actually in all races), I certainly understand fellow progressive Democratic voters who choose to vote for Brady for IC.
Biden, Castle, Markell all seem like shoe-ins. I suspect that Denn will win, but I marched with him yesterday in the Newark parade to help him seal the deal. The IC race seems to be too close to call.
Unless you live downstate in the 41st RD (where Republican turned Democrat John Adkins is running), I feel that Delawareans voting straight D is a very good strategy. There are some fine Republican legislators running, but there are also some Republican candidates running reprehensible campaigns (Lee, Copeland, Ramone, Clatworthy, Gates, etc), and some with terrible policies. We just received a mailing from Planned Parenthood, with many candidates’ views listed. You can go to http://www.pro-choicedelaware.org/voter_guide_selection.php, enter your address, and see the responses (if they participated) of every candidate you will be considering.
To take the majority in the state house, candidates Becky Walker (www.voterebeccawalker.com), Mike Barbieri (www.mikebarbieri.net), Rebecca Young (www.young4the22nd.org), and John Kowalko (www.johnkowalko.com) especially impress me.
There are some great folks running for Senate seats (where progressive Democrats are necessary to reverse the tradition of desk drawer vetoes), most notably Mike Katz (http://www.katz4senate.com), John Mackenzie (http://www.mackenzie4senate.com), and Bethany Hall Long (http://www.bethanyhall-long.us/). This weekend I submitted a letter to the editor supporting all three candidates, as the prescription necessary to fix our state Senate.
Get out there and make the change happen!

Progressive Update--10/16/2008

Less than three weeks to go. What can you do to bring change to your town, county, state, country in the next 19 days? What are you doing so you can celebrate the night of November 4th?
Obama/Biden Yard Signs and Bumper Stickers—I still have many Obama/Biden yard signs to sell—they cost me $5 each, and I am selling them for $5 each. I also have Obama/Biden bumper stickers ($1 each). Email me for more information.
Cheerleading—The McCain/Palin ticket failed to pull an October surprise. McCain’s gamble backfired; the country clearly told McCain that it hates his negative campaigning. McCain is now working hard to avoid a November meltdown. Obama is well on course to not only get the 270 Electoral Votes (EV) to win—he is closing in on receiving more than 350 EVs. Look to www.electoral-vote.com and www.fivethirtyeight.com for good EV coverage. The US Senate should end up with at least 57, and perhaps as many as 60 Democrats. Our daughters and nieces may be safe for the next four to eight years from having Roe v Wade overturned. Let’s seal the deal, and ‘bring it on home.’
Working for Obama—The Obama campaign has office space in Newark, in the Snappy Auctions building (the old Wilmington Trust, 211 Elkton Road) at Park n Shop in west Newark. You even get a free Obama/Biden button when you volunteer! You can call Aaron at 357-7710 if you have any questions about volunteering, or email him at aaron@obamavolunteer.com. Aaron and Anne are miracle workers for the campaign in Newark.
Drive for Change (D4C)—There are four opportunities each weekend to go door-to-door in Pennsylvania (Chester County) for Obama. We leave from Snappy Auctions twice a day on Saturdays and twice on Sundays. No experience required, they do training. You are always paired with someone (bring a buddy!).
Call for Change (C4C)—We are calling into PA (phone-banking) seven days a week, from 2-9pm on weekdays and from noon-5pm on weekends, in the Newark office space. Bring a cell phone and charger if you are able. The volunteers are on fire in Newark.
GOTV (Get Out The Vote) Training at the Wilmington (Riverfront) HQ this Tuesday the 21st at 7pm. There will be a GOTV trainer from Pennsylvania explain the plan for the next two weeks, and how you can help.
State Wide—There is a forum on both this Saturday and this Sunday with panels of candidates. See the flyer at http://www.uufn.org/temp/OctForum4Web.pdf. Come meet and hear Kowalko and Gates, Sorenson and Mackenzie, Copeland and Denn, etc.
The following I am repeating from my last post.
There are many, many races, with some great progressive candidates. http://www.progressivedemsdel.com/endorsements/ has the list of candidates endorsed by PDD (progressive dems of delaware). Matt Denn (http://www.mattdenn.com) is probably in the toughest state-wide race, and could certainly use your help (time and money).
Helping to take the majority in the state house, candidates Becky Walker (www.voterebeccawalker.com), Mike Barbieri (www.mikebarbieri.net), Rebecca Young (www.young4the22nd.org), and John Kowalko (www.johnkowalko.com) especially impress me. A Democratic majority in the state house will make it possible to bring needed reform to health insurance—the Republicans have been stalling this (and pocketing lobbyist money) for years. Let’s make change happen in Dover!
There are some great folks running for Senate seats (where progressive Democrats are necessary to reverse the tradition of desk drawer vetoes), most notably Mike Katz (http://www.katz4senate.com) and John Mackenzie (http://www.mackenzie4senate.com).
Get out there and make the change happen!
Paul S Baumbach
These emails and other entries are maintained at my blog: http://paulprogressive.blogspot.com/
Email me at paul@mallardadvisors.com to be removed from the email list

Progressive Update--10/10/2008

Less than four weeks to go. What are you doing so you can celebrate the night of November 4th?
Obama/Biden Yard Signs and Bumper Stickers—I have 140 Obama/Biden yard signs that I want to sell immediately. They cost me $5 each, and I am selling them for $5 each. PLEASE come and get signs from me! At this price, get several! I don’t have bumper stickers yet.
Cheerleading—The McCain/Palin ticket is melting down worse than the Dow. Obama is well on course to not only get the 270 Electoral Votes (EV) to win—he is closing in on 350. Look to www.electoral-vote.com and www.fivethirtyeight.com for good EV coverage. Lest you get complacent, remember the 2004 Swift Boating. Certainly McCain is embracing the Karl Rove smear tactics with a vengeance. Further, I have attached a file with reasons to keep working hard even with Obama leading. Think about the following question: Healthcare has been a known problem for decades—what will be necessary for President Obama to make healthcare a right for all Americans? My answer—Obama needs an electoral landslide next month. We can make it happen.
Working for Obama—The Obama campaign has office space in Newark, in the Snappy Auctions building (the old Wilmington Trust, 211 Elkton Road) at Park n Shop in west Newark. You even get a free Obama/Biden button when you volunteer! You can call Aaron at 357-7710 if you have any questions about volunteering, or email him at aaron@obamavolunteer.com. Aaron and Anne are incredible in getting this operation geared up so well.
Drive for Change (D4C)—We will have four opportunities each weekend to go door-to-door in Pennsylvania for Obama. We leave from Snappy Auctions on Saturdays at 9am and at 1pm, and on Sundays at 10am and at 2pm. No experience required, they do training. You are always paired with someone (bring a buddy!).
Call for Change (C4C)—We are calling into PA (phone-banking) seven days a week, from 2-9pm on weekdays and from noon-5pm on weekends, in the Newark office space. Bring a cell phone and charger if you are able. But most important, bring yourself (and a buddy!). They called 681 voters two nights ago! The volunteers are on fire in Newark.
Presidential Debate Watch at Timothy’s in Newark, the last one, Wednesday night at 8:30pm. We will pack the 2nd floor! Come a little early and order a drink and some food (nachos?). Bring some cash to buy an Obama shirt from the UD Democrats, bring a charge card and you can contribute online to the campaign after Obama puts the final nail in McCain’s coffin.
Donations—Let me know if you can pitch in some bucks to help the UD students in their incredible phone bank and canvassing efforts (to cover gas for driving, and pizza/soda for phone banking).
I donated over 300 Obama/Biden buttons to the Wilmington office, Newark office, and UD students. If you volunteer and don’t get one, find me and I have a few ones left to give out.
State Wide—There is a forum on Saturday the 18th and Sunday the 19th with panels of candidates. See the flyer at http://www.uufn.org/temp/OctForum4Web.pdf. The following I am repeating from my last post.
There are many, many races, with some great progressive candidates. http://www.progressivedemsdel.com/endorsements/ has the list of candidates endorsed by PDD (progressive dems of delaware). Matt Denn (http://www.mattdenn.com) is probably in the toughest state-wide race, and could certainly use your help (time and money).
To take the majority in the state house, candidates Becky Walker (www.voterebeccawalker.com), Mike Barbieri (www.mikebarbieri.net), Rebecca Young (www.young4the22nd.org), and John Kowalko (www.johnkowalko.com) especially impress me.
There are some great folks running for Senate seats (where progressive Democrats are necessary to reverse the tradition of desk drawer vetoes), most notably Mike Katz (http://www.katz4senate.com) and John Mackenzie (http://www.mackenzie4senate.com).
Get out there and make the change happen!
Paul S Baumbach

Unintended Consequences--10/02/2008

I posted this on the Progressive Democrats of Delaware Yahoo Group today:

“We have had a bad banking situation. Some of our bankers had shown themselves either incompetent or dishonest in their handling of the people’s funds. They had used the money entrusted to them in speculations and unwise loans. This was, of course, not true in the vast majority of our banks, but it was true in enough of them to shock the people of the United States, for a time, into a sense of insecurity and to put them into a frame of mind where they did not differentiate, but seemed to assume that the acts of a comparative few had tainted them all. And so it became the Government’s job to straighten out this situation and do it as quickly as possible. And that job is being performed.

[Later] After all, there is an element in the readjustment of our financial system more important than currency, more important than gold, and that is the confidence of the people themselves. Confidence and courage are the essentials of success in carrying out our plan. You people must have faith; you must not be stampeded by rumors or guesses. Let us unite in banishing fear. We have provided the machinery to restore our financial system, and it is up to you to support and make it work.”
Who said this? George W Bush? No. Ben Bernanke? No. Henry Paulson? No.
This came from FDRs first fireside chat. It is hard to find a more notable Progressive Founding Father than FDR.

I have been silent on this bulletin board in the past days, on the topic of the bailout (the framer in me strongly prefers the term rescue plan).

Part of the reason is that I have a horse in the race. I am a professional, fee-only investment advisor. The S&P 500’s 19% decline this year, and stocks’ 10% decline in September, have hurt my business, but much more importantly, my clients. While I have a few ‘millionaire’ clients, I have more clients with more modest life savings. For this reason, I worry that on this forum my words could be viewed as the words of Wall Street, and dismissed out of hand.

There is a risk that my silence can be viewed as agreement. This has not been the case. I reached my breaking point with the posts showing dismay over the tax breaks recently inserted into the bill the Senate approved last night. What the heck did you expect?

Due to populist, grass-roots opposition to the bill over the past two weeks, the house voted against it. What exactly did you think would result? This isn’t a game, it is a crisis. Legislators immediately looked to see what could be added to gain the necessary additional votes in the House.

I read that some folks do not like the views of NY Times’ Tom Friedman. I agree with many of his insights. I especially agreed with much of his Monday column, “As others have pointed out, you can’t save Main Street and punish Wall Street anymore than you can be in a rowboat with someone you hate and think that the leak in the bottom of the boat at his end is not going to sink you, too.”

I deeply respect the insight of Warren Buffett. In an interview yesterday he noted that when an EMT arrives at an accident scene he doesn’t say, “this guy wasn’t wearing his seatbelt, let him die.” That isn’t a progressive viewpoint. When did it become OK for progressives to adopt the paternalistic view that if Wall Street caused this problem, let them rot (and let the country rot with them)?

I agree that the initial 3-page Paulson/Bernanke plan was crap. But it was a start, and it was a 100% essential start. The Congress worked for days on fleshing it out. Then the public outcry was whipped up, and the House defeated the bill. Congratulations.

I have more respect for those who say ‘the current plan is fatally flawed in this manner, here is an alternative’, as long as that alternative has a good chance to pass in Congress now. Otherwise, it is as good a sentiment as saying ‘Bush deserves to be impeached, so let’s do nothing until we get this done.’ It is an idealistic waste of time.

Some of the alternative sure seem like crap to me. The “Net Worth Certificate Program” does the exact thing that the defeated bill does—it has the government (FDIC) give cash to the banks in return for promissory notes tied to the ‘toxic mortgages’. My favorite piece of this program is to suspend fair value accounting. In other words, it calls for a return to Enron accounting. Let’s solve this screw-up by forgetting the lessons of the last one.

Let’s admit the obvious—we are in a mess and there is no perfect solution. There isn’t even any good solution. There are merely a bunch of stinky solutions. Buffett states that “I’d rather be largely right than precisely wrong.” No bill going through Congress to address the economic situation will be wonderful, or even good. It can, however, be good enough.

We cannot wait 100 days to act. If we do, you won’t be able to buy a car with financing when yours breaks down next month, you won’t be able to take a job out of the area (as you won’t be able to buy a house, with a mortgage, there), you will likely find your existing home equity line of credit frozen, and many businesses will be unable to hire seasonal employees for the holidays. Waiting 100 days is no more a solution to today’s economic crisis than waiting for global warming to solve this winter’s problems with high heating oil prices.

Buffett describes the current economic situation as a financial Pearl Harbor. Buffett isn’t known for hyperbole. FDR didn’t wait until the next election to address the Japanese attack. FDR led.

We need leaders. We know that W is no leader, and he has zero credibility. This leaves us with the Congress, and to some extent our presidential candidates (and Congressional candidates). As our dearly departed Defense Secretary said, you fight wars with the army you’ve got. Well, we have a battle to wage now. The army we’ve got are our senators and congressmen and congresswomen. We cannot wait 100 days to act. Yes, get them good information, best ideas from the smartest economists. But please stop flooding them with ill-informed rhetoric (the ‘no Bailouts act’).

Their job now is to get a well-intentioned bill through Congress and signed into law to help revive the economy. The more resistance that is given, the more need there will be to insert bad policy to get more votes.

The current bill in several ways is worse than the one the House defeated on Monday. Last week’s objections deserve the credit.

“Let us unite in banishing fear. We have provided the machinery to restore our financial system, and it is up to you to support and make it work.”

Progressive Update—10/1/2008—Under 5 weeks to go

Less than five weeks to go. Who will you be helping to win on November 4th? When is the next time you are pitching in?
Please come to a talk by Villanova professor Matt Kerbel this Saturday, from 3:30-5pm, at the Newark Unitarian church (www.uufn.org), about the 2008 Presidential campaigns and election. The flyer is at http://www.uufn.org/temp/KerbelOct4Flyer4Web.pdf My favorite observation he shared four years ago is how traditionally in the Democratic primaries, the candidates stand in a circle and try to shoot each other, such that the last person standing gets the nomination, but could be near fatally wounded in the process.
Cheerleading—The McCain/Palin bounce has fully evaporated, after leading in national polls by 2-4%, McCain/Palin are now trailing by 4-6%. www.electoral-vote.com is currently projecting Obama winning with 286 electoral votes (EVs), ignoring Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida which are currently tied. The site also projects 58 Democrats in the Senate (a pickup of seven). www.fivethirtyeight.com shows a 28% likelihood of a blowout—Obama winning 375 or more EVs, providing a strong mandate to jump-start his policies.
In 2004 we saw how a lead could evaporate in the weeks before the election. I share many opportunities to pitch in below.
Working for Obama—The Obama campaign has office space in Newark, in the Snappy Auctions building (the old Wilmington Trust, 211 Elkton Road) at Park n Shop in west Newark. You will no longer need to drive up 95 to the Riverfront to help Obama.
Drive for Change (D4C)—We will have four opportunities each weekend to go door-to-door in Pennsylvania for Obama. We leave from Snappy Auctions on Saturdays at 9am and at 1pm, and on Sundays at 10am and at 2pm. You should be back to Newark in six hours (1.5 hours drive time, ½ hour orientation, and 4 hours door-knocking). No experience required, they do training. You are always paired with someone (bring a friend!).
Call for Change (C4C)—We are calling into PA (phone-banking) on weeknights, generally from 6-9pm, in the Newark office space. Bring a cell phone and charger, and a laptop and charger if you are able.
Vice President Debate Watch at Timothy’s in Newark, Thursday night at 8:30pm. Go to http://my.barackobama.com/page/event/detail/debatewatchparty/gshfw5 to signup and learn more. We will pack the 2nd floor! Come a little early and order a drink and some food (nachos?).
Sign Up—Please sign up for these events if you are able. It permits us to prepare, to have enough space in the office, to let the PA offices know how many volunteers are driving north, etc. To signup, go to http://my.barackobama.com/page/event/search_simple, enter your zipcode and a search radius to find events near you.
If you live near Newark, to save yourself time, register at My.BarackObama.Com (myBO), and provide your address. Within myBO, join the Newark DE for Obama group. Select it and search for the group’s events (and signup).
Donations—The Newark office space can use gas cards (to help folks driving to and through PA), and can use ‘go phones’. A volunteer yesterday bought one for $30 from the Rite Aid near the Newark office. This included 300 minutes, and after calling 50 PA voters, she had only used 24 minutes!
I donated a box of Obama/Biden buttons to the office. While they last, you get one for free when you volunteer.
Obama/Biden Yard Signs and Bumper Stickers—The Newark office will not have any yard signs or bumper stickers. I have ordered a bunch of these, personally. When they arrive, I will be selling the yard signs for $5 each and the bumper stickers for $1 each. I have NO IDEA when they will arrive.
State Wide—There are many, many races, with some great progressive candidates. http://www.progressivedemsdel.com/endorsements/ has the list of candidates endorsed by PDD (progressive dems of delaware). Matt Denn (http://www.mattdenn.com) is probably in the toughest state-wide race, and could certainly use your help (time and money).
To take the majority in the state house, candidates Becky Walker (www.voterebeccawalker.com), Mike Barbieri (www.mikebarbieri.net), Rebecca Young (www.young4the22nd.org), and John Kowalko (www.johnkowalko.com) especially impress me.
There are some great folks running for Senate seats (where progressive Democrats are necessary to reverse the tradition of desk drawer vetoes), most notably Mike Katz (http://www.katz4senate.com) and John Mackenzie (http://www.mackenzie4senate.com).
Please mark your calendars for Saturday October 18 and Sunday the 19th, for two candidate forums held in Newark. The flyer is at http://www.uufn.org/temp/OctForum4Web.pdf.
Get out there and make the change happen!