Progressive Update--12/19/2005--Bush for Dictator?

Secret Wiretapping—Wow—what hubris! Our President has convinced himself not that he is above the law, but rather that he is the law. He feels that checks and balances may have been fine before 9/11, but are now archaic. We have learned of the US condoning and conducting torture, establishing secret prisons overseas, transferring prisoners to countries which specialize in torture. How is this possible? By the President considering himself to be our benevolent dictator!

Please contact your senators and congresspersons, and write to your newspapers. Demand that this President be subject to the same checks and balances as every US President since George Washington. Demand that US citizens receive the same due process that Bush claims our soldiers are fighting for in Iraq.

*** PLEASE DO THIS NOW! ***

Supreme Court –We have known clearly that Supreme Court nominations are extremely important. In addition to critical issues such as the constitutional support for reproductive freedom, the proper balance of corporations’ power (labor laws, environmental laws, anti-discrimination statutes, …), states’ rights (the right of Florida to miscount votes resulting in the installation of George W Bush as the current President), and several other top issues, we now see clearly that the US requires that Supreme Court justice nominees demand that the three branches of federal government are fully able to balance each other. Let us urge our Senators to add this to the list of questions for Samuel Alito. Also, let your Senator know that you expect (demand) their participation in a filibuster should it be necessary to block the nomination of a justice that will turn the clock back fifty years on citizen’s rights.

Almost There—In two weeks, 2006 will begin, and with it many important elections. Democracy is not a spectator sport. It requires your time, talents, and treasure. There are wonderful candidates, and rotten ones. Find out which is which, and help the good ones spread their word, and win in November. This email/blog will strive to keep you informed as to opportunities to help with progressives, and most often Democrats, in 2006.

Progressive Democrats of Delaware—Go to www.progressivedemsdel.org for more information on this group that is dedicated to helping progressive candidates advance within the Delaware Democratic Party. One such potential candidate is Dennis Spivak, who is contemplating a run for Republican Mike Castle’s Congressional seat.

Framing—I continue to monitor Jeff Feldman’s site www.frameshopisopen.com . I typically post under PaulB. The articles continue to be quite interesting, and Jeff has been adding more content lately.

Citizen Training—My church, the Unitarian Universalist Fellowship of Newark (UUFN), is hosting a monthly ‘citizen training’, at which we will jointly explore how to better learn about current events, and how to share our views with the media, and with elected and appointed officials. We are planning a Meet Your Representatives forum on Wednesday night 1/11/2006 from 7-9pm with representatives of state government (senators, representatives, and state-wide elected officials). We’ll let you know when the full slate is set. We are also exploring a bill in Dover on ‘open air redistricting’.

Progressive Line—Ernie Lehman maintains a great clearinghouse of local progressive news. Go to www.theprogressiveline.com for more information.

AfterShock Movie—There is a free screening of documentary AfterShock which covers the protests that accompanied Bush’s second inauguration earlier this year. It will likely be held at the Newark Unitarian church (www.uufn.org) on (SuperBowl) Sunday 2/5/2006 at noon. Go to http://www.aftershockthemovie.com/ for more information.

Stem Cell Research—Delaware Senate Bill 80 bans human cloning but promotes the ethical research that utilizes human embryonic stem cells. This type of bill has been defeated in the past in Delaware due to extensive lobbying by representatives of the Catholic Church. The only way to get this bill turned into law is to contact your representatives and newspapers by the January 12^th hearing date. Let me know if you would like to testify before the Delaware Senate on the 12^th. It won’t take much effort to be heard on this topic, and your voice can truly tip the balance!

Blog—All of my postings are at http://paulprogressive.blogspot.com/. I will get this posted sometime this week.

Paul Baumbach

Progressive Update--11/04/2005--It's Time To Stand Together

Please join us at my home on Tuesday the 15^th from 6-8pm for the Democratic Party’s National Organizing Kickoff.

For two hours you will be joined by others who are tired of President Bush’s ‘leadership’, promoting incompetent cronies, delegating decision making to lobbyists, party leadership by the ethically bankrupt, forcing our soldiers and intelligence agencies to conduct, and to outsource torture, fabricating a justification for the country to go to war, …, the list goes on and on, as you well know.

Whining about it won’t change a thing. Come to this meeting to learn of the Democratic Party’s plans for turning the tide in the US, to grab back the Senate in 2006 from Bush’s Yes-men. There will be a conference call with Governor Howard Dean at 6:30pm.

Bring a beverage, or some chips, and plan to have a great, energizing evening.

Go to http://www.democrats.org/page/event/search_simple to find an event near you. To sign up for my event, go to that site and enter 19711 (my zip code) and you’ll find it. If you can’t make the drive to west Newark, ORGANIZE ONE YOURSELF by going to http://www.democrats.org/page/event/create

I will also happily accept and pass on donations made out to the Democratic Party on that evening.

Progressive Update--10/21/2005

Approval Ratings—Yes, America hates Georgie, and feels hoodwinked into having believed that he had some leadership skills. I read that some moderate Republicans consider W to be ‘radioactive’, and are working hard to distance themselves from the White House (and DeLay, and perhaps Frist). As a strategist, I would have preferred the Republicans to have taken longer to see how awful this President and party leadership has been, and to have a wonderful tailwind for a Progressive advance in the 2006 Congressional elections. Oh well.

Harriet Myers –I am so torn here. I think that she would be an awful Supreme Court Justice, for many reasons. However, as a pragmatic progressive, do I think that we’ll get a superior choice should she be shot down in the Senate? Actually, I think that it is time for progressives of both parties to stand up and say Enough is Enough, President Bush. Stop sending us your buddies who are not qualified for the post. Send us someone who can do the job. Send us someone other than Harriet Myers. If indeed she is voted down and Georgie nominates a more qualified, but even less progressive candidate, then we can let the American public judge, and let the Republican Party decide whether they can risk being associated with such a divisive candidate.

2K and Why—Vigils are planned to mark the 2,000 US soldier’s death in Iraq (tracked at icasualties.org). Go to www.paceminterris.com for information on local vigils (no information is there yet as there have only been 1,993 deaths so far.

What Next—Be asking yourself how involved you want to be in 2006, as we grab seats in Congress from Republicans who have rubber-stamped the awful policies of this White House. If we do nothing, we will be telling Congress that we don’t care about the crap that they have been doing, and I care. How about you?

Progressive Democrats of Delaware—They meet the first Wednesday of each month at 7pm at the Delaware Democratic HQ. Go to www.progressivedemsdel.org for more information.

48% Club—Their Yahoo Group’s calendar lists the monthly Common Cause of Delaware meetings. The next one is 11/14/2005 from 7-9pm

Framing—I continue to monitor Jeff Feldman’s site www.frameshopisopen.com . The articles continue to be quite interesting, and Jeff has been adding more content lately.

Citizen Training—My church, the Unitarian Universalist Fellowship of Newark (UUFN), is hosting a monthly ‘citizen training’, at which we will jointly explore how to better learn about current events, and how to share our views with the media, and with elected and appointed officials. If you are interested, the next session is at UUFN (420 Willa Road, Newark, Delaware) from 9-11am on Thursday 10/27 (next Thursday). We are hosting a Meet Your Representatives forum on Wednesday night 11/9/05 from 7-8:30pm with representatives of Newark City Council, Christina School Board, and New Castle County Council. We are also exploring a bill in Dover on ‘open air redistricting’.

Progressive Line—Ernie Lehman maintains a great clearinghouse of local progressive news. Go to www.theprogressiveline.com for more information.

Walmart Movie—There is a free screening of ‘the Walmart movie’ at UUFN (www.uufn.org) on 11/13 at 12:30pm. Go to http://action.bravenewfilms.org/event/wm_screening.jsp?event_KEY=5916 for more information.

What it Means to be Progressive—There is a free speech by Ruy Teixeira (Center for American Progress) on 10/25 from 6:30-8:30pm in Wolf Hall room 100 at the University of Delaware, sponsored by campusprogress.org.

Blog—All of my postings are at http://paulprogressive.blogspot.com/. I will get this posted on Monday.

Progressive Update--9/20/2005

It has been several months since my last Progressive Update. I have been in a fog like perhaps many of you, more like an Alice in Wonderland haze, disbelieving that the world is continuing in this track, and not certain of what I or we can do. Well, I hit another breaking point, so here is an upate.

Katrina—Gosh, where to start? What is greater—the number of times Bush & his press secretary have said that they don’t want to play the Blame Game, or the number of times that Bush’s sycophants have been blaming state and local officials? I accept that local and state officials may have made big mistakes (in the worst natural disaster in over 200 years). What I don’t accept is that this relieves the federal government of any responsibility, of superior (not just competent), proactive and reactive help. Indeed, this is classic Lakoff Strict Father versus Nurturing Parent. If the child stumbles, screw ‘em. If (not since, but if) the state and local officials make mistakes, and tens if not hundreds of thousands of people are stranded, why can’t we count on our federal government to be competent?

I have been beside myself with fury in the past month. We have seen so clearly that Georgie puts incompetents in charge of critical agencies, FEMA the FDA, the ambassador to the UN, people who do not believe in the function of the agency. If the Republicans do not wish to help Americans with their healthcare, in the cases of emergencies, or in relations with other nations, will they please just stand the heck aside and let Progressives lead?

Judge Roberts—What can I say? (Likely more than he!) Putting Roberts in as Chief Justice at his young age, with limited access to his legal opinions when a public servant in Republican administrations, with his history of disregard for privacy and necessary government oversight to safeguard our citizens from corporations, it is very hard to see this as anything but a tragic mistake. However, until the country wakes up to the clear and present danger of conservatives controlling all three arms of the federal government, we’re stuck in the soup!

More Ranting—I just heard that conservatives are looking to rape the earth some more, to use the excuse of Katrina to push forward drilling in the Arctic (ANWR). This is the most irresponsible administration ever with its very simple energy policy—help energy companies and screw consumers and the earth. The fiscal crisis of George Bush reminds me of college students stuck in a credit card pit. He may no longer be addicted to (fill in the blank), but he certainly is addicted to debt. Unfortunately for us, while he leaves the White House in three years, the debt he has saddled the country with, to pay for his War on Terrorism, War in Afghanistan, War in Iraq, and the Rebuilding after Katrina, and most importantly and expensively, his Payday for the Rich, this debt will be with us for decades.

What Next—What we can do, and what we must do, is to be visible, active, and effective in the next election cycle, in 2006. Every US Representative is up for election, and many Senators. If I were an incumbent Republican, I would certainly be trying to distance myself from Bush and his awful track record. The scale of Georgie’s incompetency and failures is so great, that there is a wide window of opportunity to begin to correct the political balance in the US in 2006. However, this requires each of us to speak up, and act up.

48% Club—Their Yahoo Group’s calendar lists the monthly Common Cause of Delaware meetings. The next one is 10/10/2005 from 7-9pm

Framing—I continue to monitor Jeff Feldman’s site www.frameshopisopen.com . The articles continue to be quite interesting, however the frequency has decreased.

Citizen Training—My church, the Unitarian Universalist Fellowship of Newark (UUFN), is hosting a monthly ‘citizen training’, at which we will jointly explore how to better learn about current events, and how to share our views with the media, and with elected and appointed officials. If you are interested, the next two sessions are at UUFN (420 Willa Road, Newark, Delaware) from 9-11am on Thursday 9/29 and Thursday 10/27.

Leave My Children Alone—A little-known feature of the Leave No Children Behind act is a requirement that public high schools release personal information about our children to the US military recruiters without your permission or any notice, unless you object! There is an annual window to require that the district not release information on your children. Go to www.leavemychildalone.org to find out more. Requests made to the Christina School Board have led to their posting very useful information for parents at http://www.christina.k12.de.us/news_special/2005/0824_StudentInfo.htm . If you have a child in Christina school district, go there and learn more, and see if you’d like to act by 10/17/05. If you are in another school district, see what you can do to spread the word!

Paul Baumbach

Progressive Update--5/24/2005

Nuclear War Avoided—7 Democratic and 7 Republican Senators penned a compromise to avoid the Senate rules change that would prevent a large minority of Senators from having a voice during judicial nominations. It indeed was a compromise, with both sides receiving some and giving some. I am satisfied that the compromise is about the best that progressives could obtain, given that the Republican Party has such a strangle-hold on this Senate. This gives us more reason to work hard during the 2006 and 2008 elections. I recognize that (to me) very objectionable judicial nominees will be steamrolled to a vote, but again, the country has elected a lot of conservative Senators.

Jeff Feldman on www.frameshopisopen.com has a nice piece on a progressive view of the ‘up or down vote’ party-line that right-wing zealots like Frist and DeLay are shouting. That is that the American people elected the Senators, not Georgie, and Senators have an obligation to the people to stand up for them, and that this is their top priority. That responsibility includes the need to study issues that will impact their state and the country for the future (especially life-appointments to the judiciary), and this responsibility to the people trumps any spin about ‘owing our President an up or down vote’.

Websites—For local Delaware political information, go to www.delawaregrapevine.com. For local progressive information, new website www.theprogressiveline.com includes links to many progressive sites. My (primitive) blog is at paulprogressive.blogspot.com/.

Lakoff Push Back—In two or three cases in the past month or two, I have seen some articles in the progressive with criticism of Lakoff’s framing approach. I was amused that in one of them, the writer was quite effective in using frames to point out the errors in Lakoff’s ways. Here is my take: Lakoff is an academic, who wrote extensively about the linguistic aspects of framing well before 2004. Progressives and Democrats have elevated him to a semi-deity, and this is likely not appropriate. Personally, I prefer Prof. Jeffrey Feldman (frame shop site) who does a better job of applying framing to everyday life. If I were Howard Dean, I would spend more of DNC’s consulting money for Feldman than for Lakoff. Both Lakoff and Feldman have provided some guidelines to help progressives be more effective in listening to the underlying concerns of voters, and in speaking clearly of progressive ideals.

I heard Democratic Party Chairperson Howard Dean interviewed on Meet the Press on Sunday. He was really quite good, in the face of regular tough questioning by Tim Russert. Dean did stumble by twice saying Osama bin Laden when he clearly meant Saddam Hussein, however 1) I can’t imagine anyone being flawless for a thirty minute grilling (unless he had a wireless earpiece hidden under his suit), and 2) it reinforced Dean’s point that the administration has worked tirelessly to mislead the American public that Saddam Hussein is somehow synonymous with al Quaeda and Osama bin Laden (and that the American people deserve a president that leads, and not misleads). Dean did a wonderful job of stressing the hypocrisy of the Republican Party leadership, and the vision of the Democratic Party.

Dean also did a nice job of standing up for his beliefs, admitting fault when it is due, and clearly stating how Democrats and progressives are different. If I didn’t know better, I’d say that he had been studying www.theframeshopisopen.com for several days leading up to the interview.

Howard Dean did a wonderful job in his interview of leading with the ideals, and not with the details (they come later, after consensus on ideals is reached). Each of us will be more effective communicators if we work at this approach. Practice with your friends (or pets ;-), and then go into the world and make a difference!

Paul Baumbach

http://paulprogressive.blogspot.com/

A friend shared the following with me: “You may not know it, but under a little known provision of No Child Left Behind, public high schools must hand over personal information about students -- including minors -- to local military recruiters. I think it's a real invasion of family privacy. The good news is, parents can get their kids off this list by submitting a request in writing to their school district superintendent.

I just found some great information and a useful online tool that makes it easy to "opt out" children from the list high schools are required to release to military recruiters. Just go to http://www.leavemychildalone.org/friends. Not only can you get your own kids off the list, you can help change the law that lets military recruiters prey on our minor children without the parents' explicit permission. Hope you find it useful! And tell other people you know about LeaveMyChildAlone!”

Progressive Update--4/22/2005

I’ll keep this brief. I have a quick heads-up for action this weekend, and a little framing update.

This weekend the Republican Party is abandoning our country’s foundation of the separation of church and state as the Republican Senate leader Bill Frist joins the campaign to participate in a rally claiming that Democrats are opposed to people of faith. This of course represents the total capitulation of the leading political party in this country to the fundamentalists (if this were Afghanistan, that would be grounds for invasion!). The religious right is preparing for an assault on Senate rules protecting the filibuster as a method to block voting for judicial nominations that are opposed by more than 40% of the US Senate, rules that have been in place for two centuries.

Move-On is organizing street-level action, to hand out flyers, make phone calls, and contact your Senators. If you are interested in joining Laura Anderson here in Newark on Sunday from noon to 2pm, email her at

Bush’s nominee to be the US ambassador to the UN, John Bolton (yes the guy who believes that the UN is an anachronism), was preceded by former Republican Senator John Danforth from Missouri. On March 30^th, he wrote an editorial in the New York Times in which he wrote ‘in recent times, we Republicans have allowed this shared agenda to become secondary to the agenda of Christian conservatives. As a senator, I worried every day about the size of the federal deficit. I did not spend a single minute worrying about the effect of gays on the institution of marriage. Today it seems to be the other way around. The historic principles of the Republican Party offer America its best hope for a prosperous and secure future. Our current fixation on a religious agenda has turned us in the wrong direction.’

Progressives believe in, and fiercely fight to defend Americans’ right to faith. This is what our country was founded on, and this is what Republicans such as our President and the Senate leader are threatening. What we don’t believe in is to fight to force our faith on another. Progressives want to turn this country around, to enable it to support each of us living our faith without persecution. Of course faith for most progressives means caring about each other. Conservative Republicans are opposing people of faith who recognize that the bankruptcy reform, Social Security piratization, and tax cuts for the wealthy (Bush’s taxes are more than $20,000 lower in 2004 due to his cuts, and Cheney’s savings are over $80,000) are causing incredible harm to a great many Americans, Americans who are ignored by politicians such as Frist, DeLay, and Bush, who wear their faith on their sleeve while worshiping at the altar of lobbyists.

Progressive Update--4/8/2005

Common Core Values, Properly Framed are the Key—Progressives have far more in common with middle America than does the religious right and conservative Republicans. What we failed to do in 2004 was to ‘lead with the bridge’, talk first about our ideals, our core values. This enables us to build common ground with our audience, and only after achieving consensus do we proceed to strategy and policy. This is done most effectively with the use of metaphors, or frames, as written about by George Lakoff (and his book Don’t Think of an Elephant), and Jeffrey Feldman (www.frameshopisopen.com).

The FrameShopIsOpen site offers us tools to effectively respond to questions on current issues, such as the Social Security trust fund, fascism in America, and most recently, on how Democrats are different from Republicans. It offers an Elevator Speech. To effectively turn the tide, progressives need to unify our message, and permanently rise above the fact-only level.

Therefore, in political discussions, letters to the editor, etc, identify the highest ideal that supports your issue, and lead with this ideal. Only after you have tried to gain consensus on the ideal should you travel down to how your issue supports the ideal.

Blogs, Blogs, As Far As The Eye Can See—There are a growing number of progressive blogs, websites at which the authors (and sometimes readers) post articles. Several Democratic Presidential Primary candidates had blogs run by their campaigns. Delaware state Treasurer Jack Markell initiated www.blogfordelaware.org which has some good stuff, including a recent posting from PDD (Progressive Democrats of Delaware framing guru Bob Stachnik). Celia Cohen runs www.delawaregrapevine.org, which I believe covers both the Democratic and Republican party actions in Delaware. She is known for timely, thorough, and interesting coverage, such as of last Saturday’s New Castle County Democratic Party Convention.

I just created http://paulprogressive.blogspot.com/ to hold many of my progressive posts. It is very basic, as it is my first attempt. At this point, its goal is to make it easy to access my past postings without keeping a gazillion emails.

Local Politics Update—I am now a member of the local (23^rd Representative District) Democratic District Council. Our district’s state representative is newly elected Democrat Terry Schooley (co-sponsor of HB36, ending discrimination in Delaware based on sexual orientation). She shared that conservative legislators tacked on an amendment to slow down the bill’s passage, exempting the Boy Scouts and Girl Scouts, to which the regional Girl Scout council executive objected to being lumped with the discriminatory Boy Scouts, and demanded that the Girl Scouts not be exempted from the anti-discrimination bill.

In One Week—The Committee is hosting the 10^th Annual Spaghetti Dinner and Auction from 6-9pm on Friday April 15^th at the UUFN church. New Castle County Executive Chris Coons will be the auctioneer—this is well worth the cost of admission. I have a limited supply of these $10 tickets. Let me know if you’d like to buy a ticket! The proceeds will enable the committee to help local and less-local Democratic candidates’ campaigns.

You can meet Terry Schooley on Wednesday mornings from 7:30 to 8:30am at the Eagle Diner. She would welcome a visit from you.

Keep it progressive!

Paul Baumbach

041103 Posting--The Morning After

Probably like many of you, I am in a fog, trance, a mild form of shock. Part of it is the inevitable drop in energy now that things are largely out of our hands, part of it from the roller coaster yesterday from the strong exit poll figures to the weak actual numbers (primarily from Florida). Certainly the result is not certain, however I must admit that things aren’t looking very good for our guy.

Matt Kerbel (Political Science professor from Villanova) noted late last night that ‘We got the large turnout, but not in the way I expected. Young people turned out, but so did everyone else, so they did not compose a greater percentage of the electorate as we had hoped.

Interestingly, the exit polls looked great for Kerry and they were in a dire mood at the White House. Then as the returns came in they found that in some states the exit polls were undercounting Republicans for some reason. Kerry was up by 4 in the exit polls, but that's clearly not where the state is headed.

He needs a Red Sox finish now. I wish I had better news.’

I came upon two quotes this morning in Bull! A book about the boom in the stock market from 1982-1999 by Maggie Mahar. Nicholas Taleb, an options trader, said on page 283 “All we can learn from history is that the unpredictable will happen—and does—time and again. The most dangerous error that an investor can make is to mistake probability for certainty.” On the following page, she quotes Peter Bernstein who quotes essayis G.K. Chesterton: “The real trouble with this world of ours … is that it is nearly reasonable, but not quite. Life is not an illogicality; yet it is a trap for logicians. It looks just a little more mathematical and regular than it is; its exactitude is obvious, but its inexactitude is hidden; its wildness lies in wait.” I know that I sought to convince myself that Matt’s and electoral-vote’s best guesses would come to pass, and sought to build up the mathematical and theoretical support for the predictions as much as possible, to remove uncertainty—uncertainty that can not be eliminated.

Let’s see how we did. With our help we helped John Kerry get 48% of the vote in Nevada, up from Gore’s 46%. Importantly, this forced the Republicans to devote precious resources to Nevada that otherwise would have strengthened W elsewhere. We also helped Kerry take Pennsylvania, a state that waffled back and forth all season. Great job!

I’d like to spend a little time thanking folks. First, thanks to all who volunteered to help John Kerry in Nevada and Pennsylvania. We made a real difference, with hundreds and hundreds of cards to Nevada, knocked on over a thousand doors in Pennsylvania and called hundreds if not over a thousand homes in PA. The ‘Delaware Brigade’ was wonderful and did great work.

Thanks also to the folks who helped us work in battleground states—Heath who led the Nevada letter writing, the folks in Chester County, especially Mark, John, Dick and the other Kennett Area Democrats, Marianne and the Oxford area folks, and Debra and the Chester County HQ, and our friends in Delaware County (Tom at the Chichester phone bank and Michelle with the Media-area Election-Day activities). Without them, we would have had a very hard time to know where to direct our energies, and make a difference.

While we are disappointed with our national results, we shouldn’t discount the tremendous results from Delaware. In addition to voting our 3 EVs for John Kerry, we elected Democrats in something like 16 of 18 key races, including Governor, Lt. Gov, Insurance Commissioner, New Castle County Executive, and New Castle County Council President. Even more stunning was the fact that Delaware punished those (Republicans) who resorted to character assassination and other forms of negative ads. Now if only the country could take Delaware’s lead … On the topic of Delaware, I would like to thank Joe Rupert (or blame him), as it was during my first Kerry Meet Up that his energy infected me to pitch in. Joe has done a wonderful job this year of boosting grass-roots volunteering to Delaware.

While I am disappointed that his crystal ball was not crystal-clear, I greatly appreciated the assistance provided by Professor Matt Kerbel of Villanova. He greatly raised my understanding of the political processes and the interaction with the media. I especially appreciated his willingness to spend an evening with us in Newark, providing a cram course in the Media and Politics, with a lively extended Q&A session. I envy his students at Villanova.

Matt turned me onto http://www.electoral-vote.com, which we learned this week is the labor of love of Andrew Tanenbaum, a US citizen (and computer science professor) living in Amsterdam. He wrote the textbook on computer networks that I studied in the early 80s (prior life). Again, I would have preferred that his crystal ball had been clearer …

Thanks to all who periodically gave me a pat on the back; I found this extremely helpful. I hope that we achieved my goal of providing those of us frustrated with the current course of action with the opportunity to constructively participate in our country’s future, rather than be powerless from the curse of the Republican spin-witch-doctors.

Finally, thanks to my family, Pam and Mike, who have put up with my trips to PA, phone calls while watching movies at home, crowds of folks at our house for debate parties, and simply my preoccupation (obsession?) for the past three months.

041115 Posting--Recount, Anyone?

I apologize for sending so much ‘after the fact’. However I asked Matt Kerbel (Villanova PolySci professor) about the issue of recounts, and I strongly suspect that you will find his comments very interesting. I am also attaching a PDF of the study he alludes to that was done by the UPenn professor on the discrepancies between the exit polls and ‘official’ tallies.

As with most of you, I have no interest in getting my hopes up again just to be dashed. However, I think that this is too important to disregard.

Paul Baumbach

Matt,

I try to avoid the temptation to adopt Oliver Stone's paranoia, however .

How serious is the recount hubbub in the blogosphere? I hear that Nader is challenging NH, and the Green/Libertarians are about to challenge the Ohio results? Given that Ohio had (reportedly) 70% of votes cast with paper ballots, what did Florida 2000 and the US Supreme Court decision mean for paper ballot recounting in Ohio in 2004? Is this all 'not a chance in ****' dreaming? I feel like I need to pinch myself.

Have you reviewed the pro & con academic views of the exit poll discrepancy and have a (as much as possible) non-partisan, academic/scientific take?

If you have time, I'd love to hear your thoughts on this.

Paul

Hi, Paul. She has not sung -- yet. And it's because -- of all people -- Ralph Nader is going to get a recount in New Hampshire.

Without getting all Oliver Stone about this, there is a lot of circumstantial evidence that points to as yet unexplained tabulation irregularities -- a neutral, empirical concept. I am not talking about fraud, although it may be fraud. I am taking about data that do not fit with other data.

As you know, Paul, around 6 p.m. on Election Day we were looking at a comfortable Kerry victory in line with what the Incumbent Rule would predict. Bush's margin in the national exit poll was 48% -- exactly where you would expect it to be based on his final average in the last set of polls (where he was at 48.5%). Then without warning the big states (Pennsylvania, Ohio, Flordia) began to skew heavily toward Bush as the actual results came in. Is this possible? Yes -- the exit polls could have undersampled Bush's support. But it is highly unlikely. A piece published last week by a Penn statistician put the conditional probability that these three polls would be off by as much as they were at 250 million to one. You don't have to be a statistician to wonder whether it was the actual vote count that was off, not the exits.

In North Carolina, where roughly one-third of the electorate voted in advance, there is evidence (and, I have to caution, without having seen the actual raw data I can't comment on its accuracy) that for every race except for the presidential and senate contests the early vote margins were within one percentage point of the election day margins. Yet, Bush picked up seven points in the election day vote over the early vote. If this can be verified, it suggests that something was different about the election day vote for president in that state that did not apply to other contests -- something that led to a spike in Bush's tally.

There are data in Florida and Ohio suggesting that several heavily Democratic counties surprisingly gave Bush an unexpectedly high proportion of their vote. The Florida counties have been explained as being "Dixiecrat" counties, and some of them were. But, the interesting thing about these counties is they share a voting method -- optical scanning. And it is in the optical scanning tabulation that I think we may have the common link among these and other irregularities. But to comment on this I have to move from reporting data to analyzing it, which means I am about to speculate.

It is possible that the computers that compiled and tabulated votes from these machines -- the central computers -- overcounted Bush votes, perhaps by a large margin and perhaps on a national scale. Perhaps. My understanding is that the tabulations are compiled on

PC's running Microsoft Access spreadsheets. I further understand that the spreadsheets were not password protected, that the computers were connected to the web, and that the data were not encripted. In other words, they were there for the taking should someone want to hack them. Be aware that I am drawing a conclusion that fits the data. I could be wrong. But it is within reason that I am right.

This is where Ralph Nader comes in. He has requested and will get a recount of the optical scan votes in New Hampshire. Nader has asserted that he believes these machines boosted Bush's tally by upwards of 45,000 additional votes -- a significant number in a small state. Because there is a paper record of the vote -- those optical scan strips will be hand counted -- it will be possible to determine if he is right. If there is any hope to challenge the vote, it will most likely come from here. Should Nader be proved correct it will call into question all the optical scan ballots, and you will see requests for hand recounts nationwide. It won't matter WHY the count was off at this point. It will simply matter that it was.

Should this not come to pass, either because Nader's recount is ultimately blocked or because it fails to demonstrate a measurable problem, there is still the possibility that the election can turn on an Ohio recount being called by the Green and Libertarian candidates (which will go ahead if they raise enough money to pay for it), or by Kerry closing the gap in Ohio on the strength of provisional and absentee ballots. There are other challenges in the works as well -- see: http://www.blackboxvoting.org/. I suspect all these challenges are a much longer shot, though.

Also, keep in mind that while many of us cling to the remote hope that Kerry could still become president, equally important issues of transparent elections and the winner's mandate are also in play. One reason why so much blog energy is being expended on this issue is that it is easy for Kerry partisans to believe that Bush stole the election. All the dirty tricks and partisan dealings leading up to election day in states like Ohio and Florida, against the backdrop of what happened in 2000, against the backdrop of a Republican Congress' unwillingness to mandate a paper trail for electronic machines -- all this leads people to believe that it could have been stolen. Whether or not it was, the issue of holding transparent elections in the future is a critical one, and that cause can only be advanced by delving deeply into what happened two weeks ago, regardless of who wins. And in the likely event that all this is insufficient to overturn Bush's victory, it will and should cast a shadow over his second term -- if it becomes a mainstream story.

The New Hampshire recount, if and when it goes forward, should push this story into the mainstream. For whatever it's worth, a reporter friend told me Friday that he has two friends who are political writers for Newsweek, and they think that something funny is going on. An event like a Nader recount of New Hampshire would give them the hook they need to start writing about it.

So, I'd say don't expect Kerry to become president, but know that it is still a longshot possibility. Feel free to share this with the others who came to the talk at the church. I'm sure they're concerned as well.

Best,

Matt

041122 Posting

I’ll begin with a John Kerry update and end with a Progressives update.

Recount status—I use two sites to obtain the latest on this saga--http://www.verifiedvoting.org is a non-partisan non-profit (consider donating) site that is dedicated to having the US really be an example to the world with dependable election results. As such, they are monitoring the status of the verification process and the academic studies of the 2004 election. There are recounts requested by 2004 presidential candidates in New Hampshire and in Ohio, and studies that examine Florida along with other states. This is a very good site for ‘what’s up’.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6210240/ is the site of CNBC reporter Keith Oibermann, who is the first national media reporter to cover this issue. He generally provides a daily update of very readable and comprehensive material. Yesterday’s posting points out that the real deadline for electoral votes is in January, not December—go to the site to find out why/how.

I retain my view that overturning the Bush victory is a pretty low-odds proposition. Someone pointed out to me, however, that even should Bush be inaugurated in January, if the recounts indicate that again Bush took the White House solely due to legal technicalities/deadlines, he will have a weaker ‘mandate’ with which to push his agenda.

Progressives Update—There are three local organizations designed to further the progressive agenda in the Delaware region. Two of them use Yahoo Groups, which are an alternative to email lists, and are far easier to administer. You can go to http://groups.yahoo.com to find out more. You will need to have (or obtain a free) Yahoo signon to access these groups. I choose the Daily Digest form of getting updates, to limit the number of emails I receive. Yahoo Groups offer very useful functions such as uploaded files, and calendars.

Progressive Democrats for Delaware, at http://www.progressivedemsdel.com is a well organized group with a very clear charter. Check out their list of What Do We Believe? at http://www.progressivedemsdel.com/believe/ . I think that you will find kindred spirits there. If possible, join their Yahoo Group ‘ProgressiveDemsDel’. They do not appear at this time to be updating their Yahoo Group. Their next meeting is Wednesday December 1^st at 7pm at the HQ of the Delaware Democratic Party, behind the News Journal building off Basin Road. For more information, contact Rebecca Young at createrhy@aol.com .

A consortium of groups, including the Progressive Democrats of America (PDA), Democracy for America, Grassroots for America, an interfaith organization, and another group representing a variety of progressive organizations have formed a nationwide alliance calling for UNITY; I have also heard this group called Moving Forward. Their next meeting will be on December 11^th at 11am at 234 Cheltenham Road, Newark, Delaware. If you plan to attend, please email Phil Pollner at leadcoal@aol.com . This group has a more national, less local charter.

The 48% Club is looking for a permanent name, and for kindred spirits. They are a group of folks who “did NOT give a ‘mandate’ to Bush in 2004”. For a few months they had been meeting regularly at First Unitarian on Concord Pike. They, too, have a Yahoo Group at 48_Percent_Club. You can also contact Mickey Kelley for more information at mkelley@versalign.com . Minutes from last Thursday’s meeting (attended by Delaware Treasurer Jack Markell and over forty other folks) are on the Yahoo Group, under Files, and also are attached as a PDF file to this email. Their next meeting is Thursday 12/16/04 at First Unitarian at 7pm (go to http://www.firstu.org/ for directions).

As pointed out on the X-Files --- YOU ARE NOT ALONE!

041125 Posting

I’ll begin with a John Kerry update and end with a Progressives update.

Recount status—I continue to recommend the following two sites to monitor the status of the 11/2/2004 presidential election recounts-- http://www.verifiedvoting.org and

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6210240/ .

Kennett Celebration—If you helped campaign with the Kennett Square folks, they you are invited to join the annual holiday celebration [*T*H*I*S*] Thursday December 2^nd at 7pm at the Kendal Farmhouse. They will celebrate our accomplishments, and also preview the 2005 plans. Please RSVP by [*T*H*I*S*] Monday the 29^th by emailing Mark Girardot at Ixtla_i@hotmail.com .

Framing—A common theme of Monday morning quarterbacks is that the Kerry campaign and DNC failed to effectively ‘frame’ our candidate. There is some VERY interesting articles at http://www.rockridgeinstitute.org/projects/strategic/ . The Framing The Dems article is particularly insightful (disturbing).

Progressives Update—There are three local organizations designed to further the progressive agenda in the Delaware region. Two of them use Yahoo Groups, which are an alternative to email lists, and are far easier to administer. You can go to http://groups.yahoo.com to find out more. You will need to have (or obtain a free) Yahoo signon to access these groups. I choose the Daily Digest form of getting updates, to limit the number of emails I receive. Yahoo Groups offer very useful functions such as uploaded files, and calendars.

Progressive Democrats for Delaware, at http://www.progressivedemsdel.com is a well organized group with a very clear charter. Check out their list of What Do We Believe? at http://www.progressivedemsdel.com/believe/ . I think that you will find kindred spirits there. If possible, join their Yahoo Group ‘ProgressiveDemsDel’. They do not appear at this time to be updating their Yahoo Group. Their next meeting is [*T*H*I*S*] Wednesday December 1^st at 7pm at the HQ of the Delaware Democratic Party, behind the News Journal building off Basin Road. For more information, contact Rebecca Young at createrhy@aol.com .

[I am correcting my description of this group, using more information shared by Phil Pollner.] A new, nationwide organization has been launched as a result of the last election, comprised of the organizers of the Dean and Kucinich camps and other progressive organizers. They have called on grassroots progressives in some 38 states to begin to cooperate by working together to represent all of the issues and values and resolve the injustices that confront us as a nation. Organizing by states, we can build a grassroots movement able to unite progressives both inside and outside the Democratic Party. Their next meeting will be on December 11^th at 11am at 234 Cheltenham Road, Newark, Delaware. If you plan to attend, please email Phil Pollner at leadcoal@aol.com.

The 48% Club is looking for a permanent name, and for kindred spirits. They are a group of folks who “did NOT give a ‘mandate’ to Bush in 2004”. For a few months they had been meeting regularly at First Unitarian on Concord Pike. They, too, have a Yahoo Group, at 48_Percent_Club. You can also contact Mickey Kelley for more information at mkelley@versalign.com . Minutes from last Thursday’s meeting (attended by Delaware Treasurer Jack Markell and over forty other folks) are on the Yahoo Group, under Files. Their next meeting is Thursday 12/16/04 at First Unitarian at 7pm (go to http://www.firstu.org/ for directions).

As pointed out on the X-Files --- YOU ARE NOT ALONE!

041221 Posting

I’ll begin with a short John Kerry update and end with a Progressives update. My personal recommendation is to read about the 1/5/05 meeting by the Progressive Dem’s of DE if you want to work on gaining ground in 06 and 08, and/or look for inaugural protests under 48% club and the September 11^th coalition.

Recount status—I continue to recommend the following two sites to monitor the status of the 11/2/2004 presidential election recounts-- http://www.verifiedvoting.org and

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6210240/. Sadly, I am not expecting anything to come of this before 1/20/2005, D Day (Dubya Day).

Framing—A common theme of Monday morning quarterbacks is that the Kerry campaign and DNC failed to effectively ‘frame’ our candidate. There are some VERY interesting articles at http://www.rockridgeinstitute.org/projects/strategic/ . The Framing The Dems article is particularly insightful (disturbing). Of the groups listed below, the Progressive Democrats of DE are the only one with a team specifically looking at learning about this. Many folks are talking about the Don’t Think of an Elephant book, which I found to be a wonderful introduction to ‘the framing thing’.

Progressives Update—There are three local organizations designed to further the progressive agenda in the Delaware region. Two of them use Yahoo Groups, which are an alternative to email lists, and are far easier to administer than email lists. You can go to http://groups.yahoo.com to find out more. You will need to have (or obtain a free) Yahoo signon to access these groups. In the past I chose the Daily Digest form of getting updates, to limit the number of emails I receive, I have recently changed it to only Special Notices. You can even request no emails, so you simply go to the group site to view messages without being barraged. Yahoo Groups offer very useful functions such as uploaded files, and calendars. Note that if you subscribe to multiple ones, you run the risk of seeing the same thing on several fronts. I recommend that you decide which group suits you best and jump in with both feet to that organization. There are too many wonderful groups doing wonderful things for me to adequately summarize them. Again, find your best fit and join, and cut me (the middleman) out!

Progressive Democrats for Delaware, at http://www.progressivedemsdel.com is a well organized group with a very clear charter. Check out their list of What Do We Believe? at http://www.progressivedemsdel.com/believe/ . I think that you will find kindred spirits there. If possible, join their Yahoo Group ‘ProgressiveDemsDel’. Their next meeting is Wednesday January 5^th at the HQ of the Delaware Democratic Party, behind the News Journal building off Basin Road. The meeting should be dynamite. It will be a workshop on ‘how to talk to/with conservatives and the press’. Activism and action will be the theme. It should be so good that they are recommending that you bring a folding chair! For more information, contact Rebecca Young at createrhy@aol.com .

The 48% Club is a group of folks who “did NOT give a ‘mandate’ to Bush in 2004”. They are continuing to meet regularly at First Unitarian on Concord Pike. They, too, have a Yahoo Group, at 48_Percent_Club. You can also contact Mickey Kelley for more information at mkelley@versalign.com . Their next meeting is Thursday 1/13/05 at First Unitarian at 7pm (go to http://www.firstu.org/ for directions). One of their primary items for that meeting is planning an inaugural protest on 1/20/2005.

A new, nationwide organization has been launched as a result of the last election, designed to provide the infrastructure for building a grassroots multiple issue campaign/movement, working on critical local and national issues, as well as collaborating with similar groups nationwide. Note that this group is not affiliated with the Democratic Party, in order to broaden the support for their shared ideologies and common issues related to social and economic justice. Their next meeting will be on January 15^th at 11am at 234 Cheltenham Road, Newark, Delaware. If you plan to attend, please email Phil Pollner at leadcoal@aol.com.

Do Not DeLay— The Ethics Committee admonished House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-TX) twice over the past week for improper conduct on three separate matters. He also has a third black mark on his record from 1999, when the panel admonished him for yet another matter. I believe the time has come for Rep. DeLay to step down. He is ethically unfit to serve as a leader of the people's House. America has higher standards than to let someone with his track record lead an institution as important to our democracy as the United States House of Representatives. Ask Tom Delay to Step Down now! Go to: http://www.commoncause.org/stepdownDeLay

September 11th Coalition for Just and Peaceful Intiatives—project of Pacem in Terris—There are two options shared by the coalition for Inauguration Day Protests. For more information, contact June Eisley at juneeisley@earthlink.net

Buy Blue—Go to www.buyblue.org to find out which organizations support more Democratic candidates than Republican. If you haven’t finished your holiday shopping yet …

The Green Party—There are many very active Green Party folks in the area quite dedicated to progressive issues. As such, many of them are well represented in the groups listed above. Go to www.greendel.org for more information. Their top current issue is the proposed LNG (liquefied natural gas) terminal across the Delaware River from New Castle. Another top issue is the city of Wilmington’s dumping of sewage into our streams, behavior that the current (state and federal) administrations appear to condone.

The 48% Club’s Tom Vincent includes the following note at the bottom of his email postings: 1946, while awaiting trial at Nuremberg, Nazi Reichs Marshall Herman Goering told an interviewer: "Of course the people don't want war...but...the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to greater danger. It works the same way in any country."

050105 Progressive Posting

Just a (relatively) quick note. Please review my prior posting (12/21/04) for more details.

TONIGHT—7pm at Delaware Democratic Party HQ (near the News Journal building) is a workshop on framing, likely the reason that Bush was able to get 51% of the vote. This should be a wonderful meeting. Bring a chair if you can, and pencil & paper, and prepare to be WOWed. Presented by Progressive Democrats of Delaware.

Next Thursday—7:30pm at First Unitarian Church on Halstead Road in Wilm is the normal 48% Club monthly meeting where I believe they’ll be planning the Inauguration Day protest.

MultiParty Progressives—Phil Pollner’s group’s next meeting on next Saturday at 11am at 234 Cheltenham Road in Newark (call 266-7373 or email leadcoal@aol.com for directions).

Green Correction—I briefly mentioned Green Delaware (www.greendel.org) in my last posting, but failed to mention Delaware’s Green Party, whose website is www.gpde.org . Please go to these sites to learn more of their activities and opportunities.

Yahoo Groups—While remaining a member of both, I have shut down any emails from the two Yahoo Groups (PDDs and 48% Club) to improve my sanity. I can still go there when I want to catch up on things, and to check their calendar for upcoming events. Yahoo Groups does a wonderful job of helping groups manage membership lists for email postings. I simply found that the very high energy level of the members led to too high a number of postings (even in the Daily Digest format) for my life at this time.

Have a great month!

Paul Baumbach